Stefanos Tsitsipas has really jumped from a dangerous top-ten player to a big title contender during this clay season. After a disappointing loss to Hubert Hurkacz in Miami, 22-year-old Tsitsipas rebounded brilliantly by winning the Monte-Carlo Masters. He suffered a close loss to Nadal in the Barcelona final — from championship point up — and another heartbreaker to Djokovic in the Rome semifinals, but he has established himself as a fixture in the later rounds of clay tournaments.
Tsitsipas was picked as a likely finalist of Roland-Garros by many, and this prediction looked better and better as the Greek won his early rounds in straight sets while Dominic Thiem fell at the first hurdle. Tsitsipas’s return has been a point of weakness in his past matches, but he managed to beat even the huge-serving John Isner from a set down. Tsitsipas appears confident, his heavy groundstrokes suit the clay well, and his return struggles are masked by the extra time the red dirt grants. With Nadal and Djokovic in the other half of the draw, now is an opportune time for Tsitsipas to make his first major final. There’s a big obstacle in the way, though: Daniil Medvedev.
25-year-old Medvedev’s woes on clay are well-documented. He lost in the first round of Roland-Garros for four straight years, and despite good runs at Monte-Carlo and Barcelona in 2019, clay might as well have been poison for Medvedev for much of the past few years. Coming into Roland-Garros this year, the Russian was saddled with a poor 1-2 record in his matches at Madrid and Rome, and a fifth consecutive early loss in Paris appeared likely. But Medvedev has exceeded all expectations. He has managed to translate much of the considerable might of his hard court skills onto the clay, advancing to the quarterfinals for the loss of just one set.
Head-to-head
Medvedev leads this rivalry 6-1, with Tsitsipas’s lone victory coming on the fast indoor hard courts of the World Tour Finals venue in 2019. The most recent match took place in this year’s Australian Open semifinals, where Medvedev comfortably won 6-4, 6-2, 7-5. Now, it’s worth taking some time to examine just how important (or unimportant) this match is in relation to the upcoming quarterfinal.
Tsitsipas had beaten Nadal in a physical four-hour match in the previous round. Tsitsipas spent a good portion of that match defending well behind the baseline, so some of his lopsided loss to Medvedev can be chalked up to fatigue.
That said, it cannot be ignored that Tsitsipas won a dismal 12% of first serve return points, then likened Medvedev’s serve to Isner’s after the match (to put it kindly, this is a stretch). The fact that Tsitsipas failed to cause damage with his backhand beyond a couple passing shots and forced errors, or broke serve just once in three sets, also cannot be attributed entirely to his lengthy duel with Nadal.
Matchup
Simply put, this is a bad matchup for Tsitsipas. Medvedev has a powerful serve that can prove difficult for Tsitsipas to return, but unlike Isner or Opelka, he also covers the court extremely well and has a tolerance for long rallies at his best. Medvedev’s consistency on the backhand side also far outweighs Tsitsipas’s, and his excellent defense can make it difficult for the Greek to hit through him. It is no coincidence that his lone win over Medvedev came on a fast court.
Tsitsipas has a major factor in his favor: he is much more accustomed to clay. So despite Medvedev having multiple technical advantages, Tsitsipas is armed with more experience and consistent success on clay than his opponent, who is having his first good run on clay in two years. Tsitsipas also puts more spin on his higher-margin groundstrokes than Medvedev, which the clay rewards by producing higher bounces. Medvedev’s low contact point and flat shots are much more suited to hard courts, so many of his advantages in the matchup could be neutered by the clay.
Key Factors
1. How well can Medvedev adapt to a top-class opponent?
At the Australian Open, Medvedev soared through six rounds, playing his game almost to perfection and dismissing his opponents comfortably. He didn’t face a stern test before the final, though, and it was clear that the shock of experiencing a level as high as Novak Djokovic’s in the championship match had a negative effect on Medvedev in the 5-6, 2-6, 2-6 loss. Considering that the Russian’s opponents so far have been either much lower-ranked players or players who match up poorly with Medvedev’s game, Tsitsipas will be a massive step up from what Medvedev has experienced against up to this point.
Tsitsipas’s weight of shot, physicality, and defense exceeds that of all the opponents Medvedev has played so far in this tournament. He must be prepared to raise the corresponding parts of his game in response. If he cannot, Tsitsipas may well overwhelm Medvedev quickly. Medvedev’s margin for error is also pretty small, considering that he still lacks much experience against top players on clay. If his demons from prior to this tournament resurface, this anticipated quarterfinal could be a bloodbath.
2. Can Tsitsipas overcome the challenges of the matchup?
These challenges are both physical and mental. Tsitsipas will have to return far better and be more accurately offensive than he was in the Australian Open semifinal. He must serve well, as Medvedev is a skilled returner, to avoid being sucked into too many lengthy rallies or be put on the defensive. He has to engage in crosscourt forehand rallies in order to take advantage of Medvedev’s weaker forehand. And Tsitsipas also has to defend well, making use of his exceptional forehand defense to badger Medvedev into impatient errors.
Mentally, Tsitsipas also faces challenges. Confidence is king at many points in tennis matches, and considering his record against Medvedev, it may be difficult to successfully fight the notion that the Russian is the better player in the matchup.
If Tsitsipas can return well enough to frequently get into points played on Medvedev’s serve, and target Medvedev’s forehand in the rallies, the pressure in this matchup will shift to his opponent.
Why this match is so difficult to predict
Since the Key Factors in this match can swing wildly, it seems as if this match can be won by either player, and by a narrow or wide margin. Depending on which version of Medvedev turns up — the in-control player of the early rounds or the scattered figure of the earlier clay season — Tsitsipas could either be presented with a brutal fight or an easy win. And depending on if Tsitsipas can play as the confident, clay-court force or if his matchup issues with Medvedev re-assert themselves, the Greek’s control over the match could fluctuate greatly.
Prediction
While this feels shockingly close to a toss-up, a seeming impossibility given Medvedev’s clay-court record before Roland-Garros, Tsitsipas is the pick for this quarterfinal. His success on clay far exceeds Medvedev’s, and the surface slowing down serves and rewarding his weight of shot should shift enough of the match in Tsitsipas’s favor. Medvedev is more than capable of winning this match, and may well do so, but Tsitsipas is the favorite.
Tsitsipas to win in a competitive four sets.
Thanks for reading, and this article will resume with live, game-by-game analysis during the match tomorrow! See you then.
First set: Tsitsipas 1-0 Medvedev (italicized player serves next)
Tsitsipas begins by looping a forehand wide on the first ball after the serve. He then triggers an error with a powerful inside-in forehand; that’ll be a hugely important weapon today. Medvedev goes long with a backhand. 30-15. Now the first long rally — at first an ad-court exchange dominated by the Russian, but Tsitsipas survives with good defense, then feathers a drop shot and reflexes a passing winner off Medvedev’s sharp reply. Well done. Tsitsipas forays to the net after the serve and drops a short volley winner, sealing a hold to 15. A promising first game.
Tsitsipas 1-1 Medvedev
Medvedev nets a mid-court backhand after pushing Tsitsipas back on the ad side. Mistakes like that will be very expensive today. He makes it 15-all, setting up an error-forcing forehand with a good first serve. An extended rally follows a deep Tsitsipas return (on a first serve), and both players are hitting cleanly until the Greek badly nets a drop shot. It’s 40-15 after Medvedev finds a searing backhand winner down the line after the serve. The first game point is spurned by a netted forehand that Medvedev had plenty of time to set up on, but Tsitsipas sends a second serve return well wide and the Russian holds.
Tsitsipas 2-1 Medvedev
Tsitsipas targets Medvedev’s forehand with pace, drawing a weak reply that he puts away with an inside-in forehand winner. After a missed forehand by Medvedev, the Russian nails a return onto the baseline, runs Tsitsipas around for a couple shots, and when put on the defensive, blasts a forehand down the line to kill the point. 30-15. Medvedev sails a second serve return long — a bad miss — so Tsitsipas has two game points. Another missed return (though this time, Tsitsipas hit a great T serve) completes the hold.
Tsitsipas 3-1 Medvedev
Tsitsipas slips midway through the rally, but regains his footing and Medvedev misses a forehand shortly after. Love-15. Medvedev attacks with a wide first serve and an inside-in forehand, and Tsitsipas nets his sliding pass. Now a drop shot from Medvedev, and not a bad one, but he cracks his next forehand right at the Greek, whose quick reflexes allow him to block it into the open court for a winner. Medvedev climbs back to 30-all with a huge crosscourt forehand that Tsitsipas can’t get back, but he’ll face the first break point of the match after going long at the end of a rally.
Second serve on the break point. Tsitsipas gains the upper hand in the rally with a cutting inside-out forehand, then goes behind Medvedev with a forehand winner down the line! Tsitsipas breaks.
Tsitsipas 4-1 Medvedev
Tsitsipas is in the mood. He polishes off another long rally with a crosscourt forehand winner into the very corner. 15-love. He nets a first ball forehand on the next point, though, and this is an important game for both players’ confidence. Tsitsipas dinks a lovely drop shot, catching Medvedev by surprise, and it goes for an easy winner. 30-15. The Greek has two game points to consolidate when Medvedev misses a forehand long, the first of which is taken with a big serve down the middle.
This has been an ideal start for Tsitsipas. He is playing like the favorite, imposing his forehand as the biggest weapon on court, and putting the pressure on Medvedev to make a tactical change.
Tsitsipas 4-2 Medvedev
Medvedev crushes an ace out wide for 15-love. He then peppers Tsitsipas’s backhand, drawing the error pretty quickly. Tsitsipas hits an exceptional first serve return with his backhand, following it up with an inside-out forehand winner. Impressive. Medvedev gets to 40-15 with a one-two punch (inside-in forehand winner), then holds with a stunning inside-out backhand winner.
Tsitsipas 5-2 Medvedev
Medvedev is yet to get past 15 in a return game — a testament to how well Tsitsipas is playing. The Greek begins this game with a drop shot winner. Medvedev then sails a forehand long. 30-love. A good first serve out wide brings up three game points, then another huge serve seals a fast hold to love.
Tsitsipas is in a groove on serve, reminiscent of what he tortured Andrey Rublev with in the Monte-Carlo final. He’s so difficult to stop when rolling through service games, so Medvedev has to do all he can to slow the Greek’s momentum before the end of the first set.
Tsitsipas 5-3 Medvedev
Serving to stay in the first set, Medvedev is pushed back on his second serve — now 1/6 on those points, via Jim Courier — and narrowly misses a backhand pass. It’s soon 15-all and 30-15 as Medvedev finds a couple first serves, then Medvedev wins a rare second serve point when Tsitsipas misses a gimme of an inside-out forehand. The Russian swipes a first ball backhand wide, then it’s deuce when Medvedev tries to blast a backhand passing shot at Tsitsipas and nets it. Tsitsipas tries a drop shot while a little off-balance, and though Medvedev gets to it, he slices into the net. He had plenty of time to make that. The set point is saved by a service winner, then another gives Medvedev a point for 3-5. It’s taken with an ace down the middle, and Tsitsipas will have to serve for the first set.
Tsitsipas wins the first set 6-3!
A good serve-plus-forehand combination from Tsitsipas grants him the easiest of smashes, which he dinks into the open court. A huge serve then makes it 30-love. This has been a very clinical set from Tsitsipas. Medvedev gets a first serve return very deep to Tsitsipas’s backhand and the reply goes long. 30-15. Medvedev engages Tsitsipas in a crosscourt backhand rally, but hits long under no pressure. A very bad miss. Tsitsipas has two set points, and takes the first with a forehand swing volley winner — set up by yet another great serve.
That set lasted for barely half an hour. Tsitsipas lost only four points on serve — on clay. On the return, he’s run around to hit forehands from the ad side often, and Medvedev hasn’t been able to burn him with shots hit decisively enough into the open deuce court (of course, Tsitsipas’s great forehand defense hasn’t helped). In rallies, too, Tsitsipas is doing a good job of hitting backhands from the ad side to escape crosscourt backhand points. He’s been by far the better player, and Medvedev has to go up a few gears now.
Second set: Tsitsipas 0-1 Medvedev
At 15-all, Medvedev rips a forehand down the line, forcing an error. He could do with more aggression from that wing. Another big forehand forces an error from Tsitsipas’s backhand, and the Greek misses a second serve return — just the second one so far, I think — so Medvedev holds to 15.
Tsitsipas 1-1 Medvedev
A Tennis Channel graphic says that Tsitsipas leads the forehand winners 10-2. That’s quite a disparity. Tsitsipas draws a backhand error with an inside-out forehand for 15-love. After hitting lets on both his first and second serve, Tsitsipas wins the point as Medvedev nets a return. Tsitsipas pins Medvedev in his forehand corner, then fires a crosscourt backhand into the open court that Medvedev can’t dig out. 40-love. Tsitsipas holds to love as Medvedev sails a backhand long.
That might have been the most worrying omen so far from Medvedev. Tsitsipas missed all four first serves in that game and held to love anyway. The Russian has to get more returns to his opponent’s backhand and take a more offensive stance when in the rallies.
Tsitsipas 2-1 Medvedev
Medvedev is quickly down love-30 after a couple errant groundstrokes. Tsitsipas bullies him around the court — Medvedev got a first serve in, but did nothing with the first ball forehand — and finishes with a gorgeous drop shot winner. The Russian tries to serve and volley, but Tsitsipas gets the return at his feet and sprints in to flick a forehand pass by a dismayed Medvedev. Tsitsipas breaks to love!
That’s eight points in a row for Tsitsipas, four of which were played on his second serve and two of which were played on Medvedev’s first. This match is fewer than 45 minutes old. Tsitsipas has done everything right so far — he’s backed up his own serve beautifully and is protecting his backhand side to great success. He’s punishing Medvedev for missed first serves. But Medvedev simply isn’t doing enough behind serve or return.
Tsitsipas 3-1 Medvedev
Tsitsipas comes to net behind a good serve and pokes away a volley winner. 15-love. Medvedev’s second serve return is semi-deep and just to the ad side, but Tsitsipas moves around it and forces an error with a big inside-in forehand. He’s forcing Medvedev to flirt with the lines to have a chance in points. It’s 40-love after the Russian’s typically solid backhand misfires in a rally. Medvedev pulls back one point after running down a drop shot — bringing Tsitsipas’s run of points won on serve to an end after #7 — but another netted backhand means Tsitsipas holds to 15.
Tsitsipas 3-2 Medvedev
Medvedev takes a rare opportunity to go on the offensive, blasting an inside-in forehand that doesn’t come back. An ambitious second serve hits the line and draws a missed return, then Medvedev manages to get the better of a forehand-to-forehand exchange, winning the point with a volley. Medvedev holds to love with another successful net foray ending with a volley winner. That was his best game of the match.
Tsitsipas 3-3 Medvedev
Medvedev gets decent pace on a first serve return, and Tsitsipas narrowly misses the ensuing forehand. This is Medvedev’s first love-15 on the return since the opening game of the match, and it becomes his first love-30, period after a drop shot winner. Tsitsipas does well on the love-30 point, curling a forehand down the line that forces an error. Medvedev at last takes advantage of Tsitsipas’s ad-court positioning with a good backhand down the line, and sets himself up for a smash, but bangs it just long. That was huge. 30-all. Medvedev rushes Tsitsipas with a second serve return, forcing a backhand error, and he’s got his first break point of this quarterfinal. Tsitsipas makes his first serve, but Medvedev is on the return, and the Greek shanks a forehand. We’re back on serve!
Tsitsipas 3-4 Medvedev
Medvedev adjusted very visibly there, going for more on second serve returns. He’s begun to grunt more loudly, and at love-15 a wonderful rally takes place, full of clean hitting from both, and Medvedev wins it with a drop shot winner. Medvedev is yanking Tsitsipas from side to side now, and a backhand volley into the corner makes it 30-15. An ace follows. Tsitsipas gets to 40-30 after a good forehand return, but some great Medvedev defense extends a rally and Tsitsipas misses a drop shot. That was the first big momentum shift of the match. Medvedev was both hitting harder and defending more effectively in the last two games.
Tsitsipas 4-4 Medvedev
This is a very important game. Tsitsipas has lost his rhythm on his first serve and missed plenty of them in the last two service games. He finds a big one right away to take him to 15-love, then anticipates a passing shot well and dinks a volley winner. 30-love. Tsitsipas bashes huge forehands into the opposing forehand corner, forcing the error. The Greek then pushes Medvedev wide to his backhand and nails a forehand into the open court. That was a brilliant reset from the world number five.
Tsitsipas 4-5 Medvedev
Medvedev sends an inside-out forehand well long to begin this game — he still doesn’t have much margin for error after that great hold from Tsitsipas — and immediately starts muttering to himself, then the umpire. He barely clears the net with a baseline overhead, but he does make it, and it forces the error. 15-all. Medvedev seems to be annoyed by a noise from the stands and continues muttering. He makes a poor error on a first ball backhand, then evens the game at 30-all with a drop shot-putaway combination. He went right at Tsitsipas with the overhead volley. Medvedev plays a fantastic point, making a volley, a smash, and finally a drop shot winner as Tsitsipas defends wonderfully. The Greek won’t let him out of this game, though, and it’s deuce after a netted backhand. Medvedev reaches ad again with a huge inside-out forehand, but we return to deuce after a backhand goes just long at the end of a strong rally.
Tsitsipas goes on the offensive with a great inside-out forehand, but Medvedev turns the tables with an insane backhand down the line, finishing the point at net. Game point #3, but this one is again spurned as Medvedev misdirects a swing volley, allowing Tsitsipas to catch Medvedev in no man’s land with a forehand. Tsitsipas makes the first unforced error in a few points — a long backhand — and Medvedev takes his fourth game point as another backhand from the Greek’s racket goes long.
That was a huge game. Tsitsipas did so well to immediately hit back after Medvedev raised his level to break, and put the Russian under a ton of pressure in that game. It didn’t translate into a break, though, and he’ll now have to serve to stay in the second set.
Tsitsipas 5-5 Medvedev
Tsitsipas doesn’t do enough with a first ball forehand, gets wrapped up in a lengthy exchange, and mishits a forehand. He loops another forehand just wide, and Medvedev is two points from the set at love-30. A good wide serve goes unreturned — 15-30 — but Tsitsipas nets a smash on the next point! Medvedev had done well to keep the ball in play. Two set points for the Russian. Second serve…Medvedev nets a backhand return. That could be an enormous miss. An awesome point takes place on the second set point — Tsitsipas survives a super-deep first serve return and Medvedev later misses a forehand. A clutch ace sees the Greek reach advantage, and a service winner seals the hold! That was impressive.
Tsitsipas 5-6 Medvedev
Medvedev will have to rid his mind of that second serve return error on set point. A service winner and a volley that Tsitsipas can’t quite chase down get him to 30-love, then a drop shot winner makes it 40-love. Jim Courier says that Medvedev is eight for eight at net in the second set. Medvedev holds to love — somehow making a tweener lob, then drilling away a smash on the next shot.
This feels a bit like Medvedev’s U.S. Open semifinal last year with Thiem (won by the Austrian 6-2, 7-6 (7), 7-6 (5)) in that the first set was lopsided, but the second was full of drama and quality. Medvedev will want to break here to avoid a tiebreak. He needs this set badly.
Tsitsipas 6-6 Medvedev
Serving to stay in the set for a second time, Tsitsipas nails an ace out wide. He then flays a gorgeous forehand winner down the line. A powerful inside-out forehand doesn’t come back and Tsitsipas quickly has three game points. Medvedev misses an aggressive return, and it’s time for a tiebreak!
Tiebreak
Medvedev nets a backhand under no pressure to surrender the first mini-break.
1-0 Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas lands a spectacular angled crosscourt backhand on the sideline, forcing an error.
2-0 Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas goes behind Medvedev with a brilliant crosscourt forehand winner.
3-0 Tsitsipas
Medvedev gets on the board with a service winner.
3-1 Tsitsipas
A crosscourt backhand from Medvedev leads to a narrowly missed lob from the Greek.
3-2 Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas clubs a great serve down the middle, maintaining his advantage at the change of ends.
4-2 Tsitsipas
Medvedev doesn’t hit his return cleanly, and it sails long.
5-2 Tsitsipas
Medvedev blasts an ace down the middle.
5-3 Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas fires a crisp inside-in forehand after opening up the court to perfection. Two set points on serve coming up, and three in total.
6-3 Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas crushes a forehand swing volley down the line for a winner!
Tsitsipas wins the second set 7-6 (3)!
That should be an insurmountable lead. Not necessarily because coming back will be too big an ask of Medvedev’s endurance, but because Tsitsipas isn’t likely to let Medvedev get three sets. He was clutch in the 4-5 game in this set, preventing his gritty opponent from capitalizing on his momentum by getting back Medvedev’s best first serve return of the match (a forehand deep into Tsitsipas’s backhand corner) when down set point, then holding with huge serves. And he was untouchable in the tiebreak, not giving up a single mini-break. This has been a very mature, complete performance from Tsitsipas so far. Medvedev isn’t likely to go away, but this should be too much of a deficit for him to overcome.
Third set: Tsitsipas 1-0 Medvedev
That was a physically demanding, closely contested set, so it won’t be a shock if there’s a dip here. Tsitsipas, not looking to give Medvedev an inch, goes up 30-love quickly. He mishits an attempted half-volley, framing it into the ground, then the Russian survives a forehand onslaught with the help of a great defensive dig. 30-all. Medvedev gets a nice angle on a first serve return and Tsitsipas slides a forehand wide. Break point. Tsitsipas spanks a clutch inside-in forehand winner. That was unreachable, and clutch — again. Tsitsipas reaches advantage, but nets a first ball forehand for deuce #2. A great wide serve from the Greek sets up an easy forehand winner into the open ad court, and a service winner gets Tsitsipas the hold.
Tsitsipas 1-1 Medvedev
Tsitsipas has hit 21 forehand winners to Medvedev’s five. A great rally, involving an amazing get from Tsitsipas wide on his forehand side, ends when the Greek barely misses a backhand down the line. Medvedev misses a somewhat relaxed backhand pass — that was a tired error. 15-all. Medvedev goes to the drop shot, which has been a pretty successful play for him today, but nets it and is under pressure at 15-30. Tsitsipas is on the attack with his amazing forehand, but Medvedev makes a desperate lob deep in the court, and eventually wins the point. 30-all. Medvedev tries another drop shot, and this attempt is successful, the Russian polishing off the point with a backhand pass. Game point, and Medvedev gets a vital hold as Tsitsipas makes a rare forehand unforced error.
Tsitsipas 2-1 Medvedev
Medvedev’s return catches the tape and bounces back to his side, provoking a groan. Tsitsipas shanks a second serve, missing it wildly for what I think is his first double fault of the match. 15-all. Medvedev’s return is very deep and skids, and Tsitsipas can’t handle the bounce. A service winner makes it 30-all, but Medvedev attacks Tsitsipas’s backhand, getting an error. Tsitsipas wasn’t as quick to run around his forehand as he was earlier in the match, and now faces break point for a second straight service game. Medvedev blows a second serve return, and that’s all Tsitsipas needs — a couple great serves get him to the hold from deuce.
Tsitsipas 2-2 Medvedev
At love-15, Tsitsipas blocks a backhand long. Though this is early in the set, the margin for error still feels very small. Medvedev swings a backhand wide for 15-30. All of the games in the third set have been close so far. Medvedev gets to 30-all with a big serve, but faces break point after a netted forehand. He saves it with a massive serve down the middle, but faces a second break point quickly after missing a backhand. Tsitsipas is applying relentless pressure, getting in deep returns and not making many errors in rallies. As such, Medvedev is having to force the issue, and on break point #2 he does, going on the offensive and then finding a drop shot winner. Another, from his forehand this time, gets him to advantage. The quality is really high at the moment. Tsitsipas gets back to deuce with a brutal inside-in forehand. Tsitsipas gets a lob over Medvedev, but the Russian’s hard-hit response takes the net-rushing Tsitsipas by surprise and Medvedev eventually passes him. No points are coming easy for either player, but Tsitsipas hands Medvedev a rare gift with a missed drop shot, and Medvedev holds.
Tsitsipas 2-3 Medvedev
Medvedev gets to 15-all with a baseline-kissing return that draws an error. Tsitsipas hits a great second serve, backing it up with a ruthless inside-out forehand winner — his 23rd. Tsitsipas is carving up the court with amazing crosscourt forehands, but Medvedev somehow gets them all back and runs down a drop shot, dinking a winner down the line. 30-all, and this is the fifth straight tough game this set. A good return from Medvedev makes it break point — Tsitsipas has faced break point in all his service games this set. He refuses to buckle under the pressure, whacking a forehand that Medvedev can’t get back. The Russian makes a fantastic get off another Tsitsipas drop shot, scooping it crosscourt for a winner. Break point #2. Tsitsipas again responds well, forcing an error with a huge inside-in forehand. This set has been remarkable from both players. Even though the match is less than two hours so far, it feels as if both players must be close to collapsing. Tsitsipas nets for break point #3, and Medvedev finally breaks through with a delicate drop shot winner.
This is some great tennis. Each player is having to work so hard to escape their service games. Medvedev’s break there was exhausting, quality-filled, and utterly deserved.
Tsitsipas 2-4 Medvedev
Medvedev has to consolidate here to retain his hard-earned momentum and traction in the score. He begins with two winners — a swing volley and a drop shot. 30-love. A service winner brings up three game points, the first is taken with a scorching forehand down the line.
Medvedev has been pushing hard since the middle of the second set, and that was the first time that his pushes were met with a little bit of give. Six points in a row for Medvedev, who is now two games from the third set which now feels almost exactly like the Thiem-Medvedev U.S. Open semifinal.
Tsitsipas 3-4 Medvedev
Tsitsipas is up 30-love quickly after some good serving — it seems as if that hyper-intense five-game period at the start of this set has taken a little bit out of the players. Tsitsipas forces an error with an inside-in forehand approach shot, and holds to love with a good serve. As Thiem did, Tsitsipas isn’t allowing Medvedev any room to breathe. If the Russian is to keep this lead in the set, he will have to protect it with ferocity.
Tsitsipas 4-4 Medvedev
Tsitsipas bullies Medvedev around the court, going behind him with an inside-out forehand winner. He then survives a couple big forehands from the Russian, getting into the point and forcing an error with a big inside-in forehand. Love-30. Medvedev goes for a backhand winner down the line and barely misses. Three break points. Medvedev plays an overhead volley off a return that was going wide, and dumps it into the net. This set is back on serve!
Tsitsipas 5-4 Medvedev
That had to hurt for Medvedev. He battled for nearly half an hour in this set to get that break, then lost it in barely a minute. Tsitsipas, still serving well, goes up 30-love. Medvedev ends a streak of ten points in a row lost — thanks to Courier for pointing that out — with a drop shot winner, but Tsitsipas isn’t giving Medvedev an ounce of hope and demolishes an ace down the middle. 40-15. Medvedev curls a crosscourt forehand wide, and after being a break up mere minutes ago, is now forced to serve to stay in the match.
Tsitsipas has done an excellent job of keeping his level steadily high. Medvedev, even when playing well, hasn’t been able to run away with games often at all.
Tsitsipas 5-5 Medvedev
Medvedev gets into it with the umpire about what the screens are showing — he wants a first serve back. The umpire’s not having it, but Medvedev won’t quit. Regardless of if he’s right or not, Tsitsipas has had to stand on the baseline doing nothing for over a minute. Understandably, he misses a couple returns. Another service winner makes it 40-love. A missed drop shot spurns the first game point, then Medvedev nets a sitting backhand on the second. Here’s a big point at 40-30. Medvedev flays a big serve out wide, it doesn’t come back, and he survives.
That was admirable play under pressure, but Medvedev shouldn’t have been able to argue with the umpire for that long. It was clear quickly that he wasn’t getting his serve back and the argument disrupted Tsitsipas’s rhythm.
Tsitsipas 6-5 Medvedev
Medvedev misses a drop shot from an advantageous position on the opening point, then Tsitsipas finds two big serves and it’s 40-love in seconds. A mishit forehand makes it 40-15, but Tsitsipas holds to 15 with another service winner. Medvedev will have to serve to stay in the match again, and the best he can hope for now is a tiebreak in this set.
Tsitsipas beats Medvedev 6-3, 7-6 (3), 7-5!
Medvedev approaches behind a forehand down the line and blocks a textbook volley winner into the open court. Tsitsipas then nets a backhand, so it’s 30-love. Medvedev thwacks an ace down the middle. He narrowly misses a drop shot on the first game point, then pulls a backhand wide on the second, Tsitsipas rushing him with a forehand return down the middle. Tsitsipas then reaches deuce with a successful drop shot play! He’s two points from the semifinals.
Medvedev misses a first serve, and Tsitsipas takes control with his forehand, coming forward and putting away a volley! It’s match point. Medvedev picks the worst possible time to break down mentally, and tries an underhand serve, and it was a poor one. Tsitsipas gives it exactly what it deserves, racing forward and ripping a backhand winner down the line. He’s beaten Medvedev for the first time in a major and has advanced to the semifinals!
Final Notes
1. That was a great win for Stefanos Tsitsipas. He was cruising on serve early, losing just five points in his first seven service games, then when Medvedev met him on even terms in the second set, he didn’t buckle, holding emphatically at 3-4 and holding from 15-40 down at 4-5. In the tiebreak, he defended his serve perfectly, not dropping a single point. And in the third set, when Medvedev was pressuring all of his early service games, Tsitsipas made him fight like hell for the break, then got it back just three games later.
He is advancing to the semifinals, where his forehand will again be the biggest groundstroke on the court. Regardless of if he plays as well, if he can maintain the same level of intensity that he did in this match, he’ll be the favorite.
2. Daniil Medvedev did many things well today, and some poorly, but for now I can’t get past that underhand serve on match point. It was the first underhand serve he had tried all match, so it made little sense to rely on it for a free point, its unexpectedness notwithstanding. He also didn’t hit it with sidespin, and charged the net behind it! This wasn’t just one bad decision, it was a package of them, all made on the biggest point of the match. Double faulting probably would have gotten him less criticism.
3. This may have been as focused of a match as Tsitsipas has played this year, and he is developing an impressive CV of focused matches. His refusal to have a lapse was reminiscent of his Monte-Carlo final with Rublev and the last two sets of his Australian Open quarterfinal with Nadal. This match could have easily gone to a fourth set, but Tsitsipas did everything he could to avoid even that, and he played his best tennis at the right times.
4. The similarities between this match and Thiem’s win over Medvedev in Flushing Meadows were so strong that I actually started thinking about what Medvedev could do to improve on that showing — a tight, tight straight-set loss to a top player and title contender (though this isn’t as much the case for Tsitsipas as it was for Thiem). It turned out that Medvedev did worse. He didn’t just try an awful underarm serve on match point, he lost that last service game after leading 40-love, including errors at 40-love and 40-15. As a top player, with the serve that he has, Medvedev should view this passage of play as unacceptable.
5. This is the third straight major semifinal that Tsitsipas has reached. Given that while this match was physical, it lasted well under three hours, and that Tsitsipas now gets to play Zverev in a Roland-Garros semifinal instead of Novak Djokovic, he will like his chances to make a first major final. Tsitsipas has had a splendid 2021 that has taken him onto the top shelf of the tour’s best players, and is on a pretty steep curve of improvement. Even if he loses in the semifinals, this tournament has already been a success for the Greek. He beat big-serving John Isner from a set down, and was incredibly steady in this match that felt more like a battle of major champions than a clash of players aiming to win their first slam event. His poor streak at the majors from late 2019 to early 2020 is well and truly over, and an era of Tsitsipas making consistently deep runs at majors may be beginning. Wimbledon will probably be a bigger challenge than the other majors because Tsitsipas’s occasional struggles with his return will be highlighted more on grass, but if the Greek is on his game, he is already a threat at three of the four majors.
6. Some will say that Medvedev played his best today, and was forced to adapt his tactics by Tsitsipas. This definitely has an element of truth, but another issue was that Medvedev wasn’t executing his initial tactics at an optimal level. His forehands, even when given plenty of time, totally lacked the requisite amount of aggression in the first set, and didn’t arrive until the middle of the second set. When the opponent has the biggest groundstroke on court by a distance — which Tsitsipas did, in his forehand — it’s crucial to hit with extra aggression at times, and to take pains to avoid giving that groundstroke time. Medvedev did neither particularly well early on, and if he had played more offensively early on or rushed Tsitsipas more, he would have gotten into this match before the middle of the second set.
Medvedev also wasn’t able to pin Tsitsipas in his backhand corner reliably. The Greek ran around his backhand to hit many forehands from the ad side, and while much of that can be credited to Tsitsipas’s foot speed and great forehand, many of Medvedev’s crosscourt backhands lacked width and many of his down the line backhands into the open court lacked enough pace.
7. While it seems weird to write since Tsitsipas won fairly comfortably, there’s a good argument that the Greek rescued his year, or secured a successful year, by winning this match. Losing today would have meant a loss to a player who was on his first good run at Roland-Garros, and had beaten Tsitsipas at the Australian Open. But in winning, Tsitsipas has emphatically established his superiority over Medvedev on clay, and gained a foothold in the head-to-head. This win will probably do wonders for his confidence when he plays the Russian, who he will surely meet again soon on a less favorable surface.
8. I frequently underestimate the impact of a surface change on a rivalry. Medvedev beat Tsitsipas in straight sets on hard court in Melbourne and lost in straight sets on clay today, and it doesn’t feel as if he played enormously worse. Tsitsipas’s game grows a dimension on clay, especially in a matchup against a big server, and the difference in his return and ability to dictate with his forehand was huge.
9. It seemed like Medvedev’s biggest potential stumbling block going into this match was failing to adjust to a much higher level of play from his previous matches. While that may have had an impact in the first set, the bigger takeaway is how much of a difference there is between an in-control Medvedev and a Medvedev being dictated by an opponent. Every player logically looks worse against better players, but with the Russian the differences are so visible; his forehand appears a strength against worse players and an occasional weakness against the stars, he often seems impossible to hit through, but players with the right firepower can manage it. I maintain that watching Medvedev clean up against much lower-ranked players makes it very tempting to overrate his level, and that matches like today’s are a far more accurate depiction of the Russian’s peak level and potential.
10. Tsitsipas’s forehand is one of the greatest shots of the NextGen, and even the current tour in general. Today, it was near its best for much of the time. Tsitsipas’s crosscourt forehands had bite and heavy topspin, his inside-out forehands had pace, and he made very, very few unprovoked errors from that wing. When he hit forehands from his backhand corner, he made sure that his shot quality was high enough to be worth sacrificing court position. While Thiem’s forehand at its best has more pure power, you’d be hard pressed to find a forehand more effective or well-rounded than Tsitsipas’s from the active men under 30.
11. Tsitsipas had a higher percentage of points won on his second serve than his first today. This indicates a couple things — that Medvedev wasn’t doing enough with his returns, and that Tsitsipas was dominating much of the time in the neutral rallies. Tsitsipas wasn’t a slouch on his first serve, either — he won 73% of points on that delivery, and when Medvedev hit a first serve return with incredible depth into Tsitsipas’s backhand corner at set point in the second, the Greek reacted quickly and went on to win the point.
In all, Tsitsipas lost 27 points on serve and was broken just twice. This probably both speaks well of his serve/ability to back it up and badly of Medvedev’s return performance.
12. Like Thiem-Medvedev at the U.S. Open, this was very tense and high-quality for a straight-set match. These two have played in both majors this year, their head-to-head is now more competitive, and the rivalry seems much more competitive after today’s match than before. May we soon see another edition of it.