The first major of the year takes place on vibrant blue courts in Melbourne Park, Australia. Players must contend with often viciously high temperatures as well as their peers’ fresh legs (at least in early rounds). The Australian Open is many things — an opportunity for glory and heartbreak, a measuring stick for form — but perhaps first and foremost it is an indicator of how the tour stands.
Just once in the 21st century has an ATP singles player won the Australian Open and no other majors: Thomas Johansson in 2002. That year had been somewhat of an anomaly, too, with the top six seeds all falling before the quarterfinals and the top five dropping before the round of 16 (this has not happened since on the men’s side, at any major). The last twenty-one men’s singles tournaments have been won in combination by just seven different players, three of whom have four or more Australian Open titles. This is not a tournament that ATP players tend to “fluke,” or even win uncharacteristically. Stan Wawrinka, the last man to win the Australian Open for the first time, beat the top two seeds en route to the title. Wins in Melbourne are typically earned the hard way.
ATP players who win the Australian Open in recent years often turn out to be legends. While Wimbledon still tends to be regarded as the ultimate prize on tour, it lacks the weight of the Australian in some ways. It is the only major on grass, while the U.S. Open acts as a sister to the “Happy Slam” since it is also played on hard court. Wimbledon lies in the center of the tennis calendar, while the Australian Open outlines which players are in-form ahead of the prestigious Indian Wells and Miami tournaments — again, on a hard court. Many players would, if given the choice, win Wimbledon over the Australian Open. But the latter offers a prize that goes beyond 2000 points and a trophy: the proof of hard court dominance.
The face of the Australian Open on the men’s side, especially in the 2010s decade, is Novak Djokovic. He has won the event eight times, most impressively so after winning back-to-back five-setters in the semifinal and final in 2012, playing for over ten and a half hours in his final two matches. Against Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, his two biggest rivals, he has won six of seven matches in Melbourne (the lone loss came to Federer in 2007, notably before Djokovic won the Australian Open for the first time). Time after time, Djokovic has kicked off the year by securing victory Down Under, carrying the momentum to other big titles later in the season. Four of the eight times he has won the tournament, he has claimed at least one more major title in the same season.
The Australian Open is particularly important for Djokovic in 2021. He is one of a handful of players on the top-heavy ATP that has a solid chance to win it, but it will likely be more difficult this year than most. Though he has won the 2019 and 2020 editions of the tournament, he ended 2020 in uncharacteristically mediocre form amidst a slew of off-court stress. He recorded losses to the second and third-biggest threats to win the men’s singles title — Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev — in the last official tournament he played.
Djokovic has 17 major titles. He has been chasing Federer and Nadal’s totals for years, who stand tied at 20. Though Djokovic won three majors in a row at the end of 2018 and start of 2019, he has not made up any ground on Nadal since, who has won Roland-Garros each of the last four years. If Djokovic falls in Melbourne this year, he will be staring at a potential four-major deficit in Paris a few months later — and he’ll have lost an opportunity to win the major at which he’s the most successful. But if he wins, the race intensifies at 18-20-20. With Thiem and Medvedev on the rise and Nadal having Roland-Garros on something of a lockdown, Djokovic’s window to add to his tally is closing. A victory at the Australian Open could reignite his momentum and increase his promise at the year’s other majors.
The stakes are high for Thiem as well. Having just won his first major at the U.S. Open, he is eager to add a second. The runner-up at the Australian Open in 2020, falling to Djokovic in a fifth set, Thiem has been the closest player to cracking the Big Three’s vise grip on the majors in the last four years. He has beaten Djokovic twice at Roland-Garros and Nadal in Melbourne, but failed to win each tournament (he did not play either of them en route to his U.S. Open title). Firmly in his prime, a win at the Australian Open after beating Djokovic or Nadal, especially the former, would be the signature victory of his career.
Medvedev is coming off a triumph at the World Tour Finals in which he beat Djokovic, Nadal, and Thiem in quick succession. He is mastering hard courts with impressive speed. But unlike Thiem, he is not a threat to win Roland-Garros, and unlike Djokovic, he is not a factor at Wimbledon. If the Australian Open slips away, Medvedev will likely have to wait all the way until the U.S. Open for his next realistic chance to win a maiden major title. Having fallen just short in Flushing Meadows in 2019, Medvedev has gotten within shouting distance of immortality and likely longs to close the gap. With his surface versatility being less pronounced than several of his rivals, this is an opportunity to grab with both hands.
Like Djokovic, Nadal is chasing history. A second Australian Open title would grant him the unequalled lead in major titles on the men’s side as well as the double career Grand Slam (winning each major title twice). He has less to lose than Djokovic, Medvedev, and Thiem, though. Having not won the tournament since 2009, a victory in Melbourne would be more of an unexpected bonus for Nadal than anything else.
The men’s singles title will almost certainly go to one of these four players. Fifth-ranked Federer is not playing due to an extended recovery period from knee surgery. Others, like Tsitsipas, Zverev, and Rublev, have never beaten any of them in a major. Between them, they have produced one major final appearance. After eighth-ranked Rublev, the top-heaviness of the ATP rankings is further revealed. Schwartzman, Berrettini, and Monfils (ranked 9th through 11th) have made a combined four major semifinals and zero finals. Betting on anyone besides Djokovic, Thiem, Medvedev or Nadal to win the men’s singles will likely be a losing bet.
Even though it’s hard to imagine any ATP singles player besides the top four claiming glory in Melbourne this year, there are still a world of possibilities for the tournament and 2021. The pressure falls on Djokovic to play gatekeeper Down Under, holding off the surge from the younger players yet again. Thiem and Medvedev face their own expectations to further erode at Djokovic and Nadal’s dominance at the recent majors. Nadal has an opportunity to win the major that has eluded him for the past twelve years. Whoever takes the title will carry huge momentum into the rest of the calendar.
Every time the circuit begins again, there are questions. This year is no different. The COVID-19-eaten 2020 calendar was not particularly revealing by the standards of the average tennis year. And while more queries will surely be produced by the Australian Open, it promises to answer many of them throughout its electric two weeks of tennis.
The courts are patiently waiting.