Wimbledon 2019: Week One Assessments

By Owen Lewis

It’s the break between weeks 1 and 2 of Wimbledon, with “Manic Monday” coming up tomorrow. The second week is sure to bring more action to what has already been an incredibly compelling tournament. Andy Murray and Serena Williams teamed up in a dream mixed doubles partnership, 15-year-old Coco Gauff made a fairytale run to the fourth round, and Rafael Nadal produced an extremely entertaining win over the enigmatic Nick Kyrgios. Let’s look at the top players’ performances so far, as well as some of the best stories and a few of my predictions.

The Big Three

The trio of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic have dominated men’s tennis for what seems an age, starting with Federer’s ascent in 2003. Each of the last 10 major tournaments has been won by one of these giants, and it would be a big surprise if things went differently this week.

-Federer dropped the first set of his opening-round match to Lloyd Harris, but only lost five games for the rest of the contest. He then earned straight-set wins over Jay Clarke and Lucas Pouille in the second and third rounds, respectively. Still, he’s averaging just over eight aces a match (a bit low for him), and hasn’t really played at his imperious best yet. With an upcoming fourth-rounder against Matteo Berrettini, who has made waves on grass this year with an 11-1 record, Federer will likely have to step up his game to continue his smooth progress. Grade: B+

-Nadal, coming off a 12th French Open victory in Paris last month, has been impressive in his first few matches. Grass is the world No. 2’s least favorite surface, but he broke a string of less-than-impressive results at Wimbledon by making the semifinal last year, and looks to build on that result in 2019. His pre-tournament draw, however, was intimidating (it’s slackened considerably thanks to several upsets). After cruising in his opening match, Nadal clashed with Nick Kyrgios, the talented but self-destructive Aussie, in a second round blockbuster. Kyrgios lacks consistently strong results, but has wins over each member of the Big Three, including a four-set win over Nadal at the 2014 Wimbledon. The first two sets were split, and the next two went to tiebreaks. Though Nadal had never beaten Kyrgios in a tiebreak, he impressively took both “breakers”, grinding out a tough four-set win: 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (3).

In the third round, Nadal crushed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a former Wimbledon semifinalist, for the loss of only seven games. He lost just 10 points on serve through the whole match and never faced a break point in the process. He’s averaged 11 aces a match, which is an unusually high tally for the Spanish lefty. At one point when Nadal was ranked No. 1 during the 2018 season, he averaged fewer aces per match than 98 out of the top 100 players. Nadal isn’t known for his serve, but seems to have adjusted well to the clay-grass surface change- at Wimbledon, he often flattens out his serve, increasing the pace.

Nadal has a seemingly straightforward fourth-rounder against Joao Sousa of Portugal, and won’t face a seeded player until the semifinals, where he could play Roger Federer. With the grass playing slower this year, Nadal will feel more comfortable- if he can stay efficient during the next couple rounds, he will be deadly at the business end of the tournament. Grade: A

-Djokovic was, unquestionably, the pre-tournament favorite. He’s the current world No. 1 and the winner of three out of the last four slams. Few have lowered his status as the favorite- upsets of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev have made his draw significantly easier. With Federer and Nadal on the other side of the draw, he has the least difficult path to the final.

Djokovic won a potentially tricky opening-rounder against Philipp Kohlschreiber, then rolled American Denis Kudla in round two. His next match was significantly more tricky, though. Djokovic had to battle in order to advance, coming through a tough four-setter against Herbert Hurkacz. After a close first set, Hurkacz hit some incredible shots on his way to winning the second-set tiebreak. His level dipped after the set, and Djokovic lost just five games during the last two sets. Still, he didn’t play as well as in either of his first two matches, missing first serves at crucial moments and hitting more double faults than he did in his first two matches combined.

Despite a slight dip in form during his third-rounder, Djokovic is still the favorite with most. It will be a huge surprise if he doesn’t make the final at the least. Grade: A-

The NextGen

Although the Big Three are an extremely rare talent, the young’uns of tennis have struggled to dethrone the 30+ year-olds. The only one to have made the final of a major so far is Dominic Thiem, who lost in the first round at Wimbledon this year. Many believe that their poor results are because their generation is a weak one, while others state that the Big Three are just that good. Either way, the young stars again failed to impress at Wimbledon.

-Stefanos Tsitsipas made the semifinals at the Australian Open, beating Federer along the way. At the French Open, he made the fourth round before losing an absolute nail-biter to Stan Wawrinka. But at Wimbledon, the 7th seed lost in the first round to unseeded Thomas Fabbiano. At least he saved a couple match points in the fourst set before falling 6-3 in the fifth. Grade: D

-Alexander Zverev has had success at every level except the majors, and has suffered a vicious dip in form after his ATP Finals victory at the end of 2018. He went 1/7 in break points during his first-rounder against the unseeded Jiri Vesely, losing in four sets. Grade: F

-Dominic Thiem had beaten Djokovic in the semis of the French Open in an impressive five-setter before losing to Nadal in the final. At Wimbledon, however, he lost in four sets to the…you guessed it…unseeded Sam Querrey. He lost the fourth set 6-0, winning just five points along the way. Grade: F-

-Felix Auger-Aliassime, an 18-year-old from Canada, was the fifth favorite with some odds-makers despite never having won a grand slam match. Still, many expected him to make a splash at Wimbledon, backing up his encouraging results on the grass courts of Queen’s Club and Stuttgart. The Canadian was slated to play Djokovic in the fourth round, but after two four-set wins, he put up disappointingly little resistance against Ugo Humbert in the third round. After losing the first set, FAA wasted a 5-2 lead in the second set, then folded almost immediately in the third. Grade: C

-Nick Kyrgios, though he didn’t make it past the second round, did play well against Nadal. Still, his shockingly blunt responses in press alienated any fans he may have earned during his time at Wimbledon. Grade: D

Coco Gauff

-Coco Gauff has been the story of the tournament so far. At fifteen years old, she beat her idol Venus Williams in the first round, then won her next match in straight sets. In the third round against Polona Hercog, Gauff was down a set and 5-2, serving at match point down. She played a nerveless point, hitting a backhand slice winner that landed plum on the sideline. Gauff broke Hercog in the next game, saving another match point along the way, and went on to seal a remarkable victory 3-6, 7-6 (7), 7-5.

Gauff’s next opponent is Simona Halep, last year’s French Open champion and former world No. 1 (it’s not on Center Court for some reason). She is by no means the favorite, but it wouldn’t be a shock if she won, either. With the women’s game as competitive as it is, Gauff has a great opportunity to extend her remarkable run even further. The world will be watching. Grade: A+

Others

-Serena Williams, now 37 years old, hasn’t won a slam in two and a half years. She lost weakly in the third round of the French Open, and hasn’t played a warmup event prior to Wimbledon. And yet some still pick her to win. Serena is unquestionably the GOAT on the women’s side, and still has the game to be at the top. She had a scare in her second-round match, winning 2-6, 6-2, 6-4, but she has a very winnable fourth-rounder against Carla Suarez Navarro. If Serena can avoid a mid-tournament hiccup and maintain her focus, she’ll be a nightmare for anyone to play. Side note: she’s playing mixed with Andy Murray, which may or may not take a toll on her singles level. Grade: B

-Ash Barty is in red-hot form right now. Recently crowned world No. 1, French Open champion, few would be surprised to see her lift the trophy in London. So far, she’s been terrorizing her opponents, not coming close to dropping a set. In my opinion, Barty is definitely the one to beat, and the favorite to take the women’s title. Grade: A

-Kei Nishikori has made the second week of a slam once again, and has yet to drop a set. But he has so many factors working against him. He’s not as durable as many other players, and a common theme is him being pushed too hard by a player he should beat easily, then getting emasculated by Nadal or Djokovic (or retiring injured). He has a winnable fourth-round match against Mikhail Kukushkin, but will likely play Federer after that. To top it off, grass is his worst surface, and he lacks the big serve/forehand to win points efficiently. I think his chances of winning are as low as anyone’s at this point. Even so, he should be fresh so far, due in part to his fairly easy draw of unseeded players- don’t be surprised if he makes the quarterfinals, but I’m reasonably confident that’s as far as he’ll go. Grade: A (based on play so far)

SerAndy

Andy Murray is back! No, not in singles, but he’s on court and that’s a great start. Murray entered in both the men’s doubles and mixed doubles for Wimbledon, teaming with Pierre-Hughes Herbert and Serena Williams, respectively. Murray and Herbert lost in the second round of the men’s doubles, but he and Serena won their first round in mixed. Regardless of the outcome, it’s amazing to see such great players partnered up. Best of luck to them for the rest of the tournament.

Predictions

-For the men, it’s just too hard to see Djokovic losing at the moment, though Nadal is my solid second favorite. Nadal will beat Federer in a four-set semifinal, and in the final Djokovic wins 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.

-Barty is playing so well at the moment. I back her to ride the momentum to her first slam title. Dark horses: Gauff, Serena, and Elina Svitolina.

-For the mixed doubles, I’ll go with Murray and Serena. Why not? What a story it would be.

2 thoughts on “Wimbledon 2019: Week One Assessments

    1. We’ll see. If he can get another Wimbledon or AO next year he’ll have a chance to hold on, but Nadal is likely to at least tie the 20 by the end of next year, and a healthy Djokovic will be in contention for most slams as well.

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