How did we get here? The day before yesterday, Rafael Nadal faced a break point that would have seen him fall behind 6-3, 4-0 against Denis Shapovalov. But after a fierce comeback including two match point saves, Nadal raised his fist, having completed a 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (3) victory. And earlier today, Novak Djokovic put together two of the best sets he’s played on clay this year, squirming out of all kinds of deficits against the confident, in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas even served for the match and had looks to go up a double break in the third set, but Djokovic denied him at every turn when it seemed inevitable that Tsitsipas would open up an insurmountable lead. The world number one even backed up this win by beating home favorite Lorenzo Sonego 6-3, 6-7 (5), 6-2, after losing an attritional second set in which he had match point twice.
So it was nervy, gritty, and looked unlikely at many points, but this year’s ATP Rome final will be contested by Nadal and Djokovic. This will be the 57th match in what’s probably the greatest men’s rivalry of all time. Djokovic has a record 36 Masters 1000 titles, while Nadal lags just behind with 35. These two have reached truly glittering heights of tennis against each other over the course of their careers, pushing each other and more players on tour to greater efforts and accomplishments. And while the best stretch of the rivalry is in the past, much of it contested during that exalted period from 2008 to 2014, Djokovic and Nadal are still capable of incredible play. They even contested one of the best matches ever at Wimbledon as recently as 2018, Djokovic emerging victorious 10-8 in the fifth after five hours and 14 minutes of brilliant tennis.
It’s important to first establish that Nadal is a firm favorite in this final. Though Djokovic leads the overall head-to-head 29-27, Nadal holds a big 18-7 edge on the clay. Djokovic has historically proven himself to be the most imposing threat to the Spaniard on clay, notably beating him in the 2011 Madrid and Rome finals, as well as the 2013 Monte-Carlo final. That said, this trend hasn’t been apparent in recent years. The last time Djokovic got the better of Nadal on clay was in the 2016 Rome quarterfinals, edging out a straight-set match of great quality. Nadal has won the last four matches against Djokovic on the dirt, losing just one close set in the process. In addition, the Spaniard is still winning Roland-Garros titles without fail, while Djokovic has suffered a drop-off from his best tennis on clay from 2011 to 2016.
Here are a couple things that Djokovic must excel at to have a solid chance to win tomorrow’s final:
1. The serve-return battle
Djokovic simply has to win the serve-return battle to beat Nadal on clay. He possesses a better serve than his great rival, and while the gap between their returns is smallest on clay, he has a better all-around return as well. Yet at the Roland-Garros final last year, Djokovic somehow lost the serve-return battle, losing his serve seven times and breaking Nadal’s just once. It’s almost needless to say that Djokovic fell in straight sets. Nadal is better from the baseline than Djokovic on clay; the slower surface gives him ample time to rip his fast-revolving forehands or reset points with deep defensive shots. As a result, Djokovic needs to make headway with the serve and return by hitting his spots to set up one-two punches and driving Nadal’s serves back deep. This will allow him to start rallies on his terms, which will tip the balance of play more in his direction.
2. Starting well
This is the opposite of a glamorous tactical analysis, but it’s imperative that Djokovic not start the match slowly. He’s been bageled in the first set each of the last two times he’s played Nadal on clay (incidentally, these are the only two 6-0 sets in the entire gargantuan rivalry). If Nadal starts the match in better form than Djokovic, things will slip away from the Serb with lightning speed. Djokovic needs to be focused from the word go and get his teeth into the match by holding serve early. He can do this by serving well and playing with high-margin aggression from the baseline, winning some short points and putting Nadal on the defensive whenever possible. Djokovic will also surely mix in some drop shots, which can help him if he hits an appropriate amount, but it’s crucial that he not overuse the tactic early. He brought the drop shot out in force at the 2020 Roland-Garros final, and won several points with it, but still lost in straight sets. He’ll need much more than the drop shot to win this match, and it will lose much of its surprise factor if played too often.
3. Controlled forehand aggression
During long stretches of the clay season, Djokovic has struggled to finish points with his forehand. This stroke will have to be firing well tomorrow, and not just in its finishing power. Djokovic will surely need it to crack winners after the serve or if he has some open court to aim at, but he will also have to attack Nadal’s forehand with his own. Nadal’s forehand is always an imposing weapon, but it becomes truly tyrannical to play against when it’s given time. Djokovic has historically done a good job of rushing Nadal with crosscourt backhands, but this is more effective on faster surfaces and has no small amount of risk on clay, where a short backhand can give Nadal enough time to load up and drill a forehand to any part of the court. Djokovic’s inside-out forehand is also a helpful tool to target the Nadal forehand with; not only does it have more power than his backhand, but he can get angles on it that are harder to redirect down the line. But however Djokovic chooses to attack Nadal’s forehand, feeding it a steady diet of depth, pace, or both is necessary to neutralize some of its menace.
Nadal’s optimal tactics
Having dominated the pair’s last four matches on clay, Nadal’s head will be far less cluttered tactically than Djokovic’s. Serving well is always helpful for the Spaniard against Djokovic; if he misses a lot of first serves he can expect heavy pressure during his service games. He was incredibly successful in short points against Djokovic at Roland-Garros in October, so setting up short forehands with his serve and neutralizing Djokovic’s serves with deep returns will go a long way for Nadal in this matchup.
When the rallies lengthen, Nadal will want to focus on getting depth on his groundstrokes to starve Djokovic of time and give himself extra milliseconds to load up. If he finds himself rushed on his forehand or losing ground in the crosscourt pattern that pits his backhand against Djokovic’s forehand, he will need to hit crisp backhands to escape being pinned in the corner. Well-executed, low slices to Djokovic’s backhand can set up Nadal for a point-ending forehand as well. But if he plays his standard game at a high enough level, Djokovic will have his hands full even without Nadal having to make any adjustments.
Prediction
Nadal in straight sets, probably something close to 6-4, 6-3. Djokovic certainly has patterns and shots that can hurt Nadal, but he’ll have to execute them so successfully to make headway, and on top of all this, he played a combined five hours today across the end of his match against Tsitsipas and the semifinal against Sonego. By comparison, Nadal dispatched Reilly Opelka in little more than an hour and a half in his semifinal and will have fresh legs for the final. It’s also been long enough since Djokovic beat Nadal on clay that the feeling is the Serb will have to do something special, and this just doesn’t seem likely, despite how well Djokovic played at the end of his quarterfinal and semifinal.
Despite the odds being stacked against Djokovic, he knows how to beat Nadal on clay better than anyone else in the world, having done it seven times (the next highest number of times is three). A classic is almost always possible when Djokovic and Nadal play. While their styles may not contrast in as aesthetically pleasing a way as either’s does with Roger Federer’s, these two complement each other with their defensive abilities that lengthen rallies, their big point play which renders both seemingly invincible at times, and above all, their intense desire to win, grinding the other into submission along the way if necessary.
This might be meeting #57 between Nadal and Djokovic, but their competitive nature has not faded over the years. Each has adapted their games since their first match in Indian Wells fourteen years ago, and each has built a truly legendary career since then. They have 38 major titles between them, many of which were won after beating the other in the final or semifinal. Nadal looks to win a 21st major at Roland-Garros this year, overtaking Federer’s 20, while Djokovic has recently exceeded the Swiss’s tally of weeks at #1. But neither of them will be thinking of records during tomorrow’s match. Each will be constantly looking for an edge, whether it be across a set, game, or even the tiniest sliver of extra space to slot a groundstroke through during a rally. This is the best rivalry in men’s tennis for a reason — you can count on neither player giving up on the match. Both will seize on the slightest chance to forge ahead, to near the finish line, to overwhelm their great rival in their constant pursuit for glory. Let’s hope for a classic.
The players are walking out — both get a nice hand from the fans. These two are no strangers to the Rome crowd. They’ve got 14 titles between them in the Italian capital (nine for Nadal, five for Djokovic).
Here are a couple great Djokovic-Nadal rallies in Rome to get you warmed up:
Djokovic will serve to open the match. He needs to start well — in three of his last four matches against Nadal on clay, he’s fallen behind 4-0 or worse in the first set.
First set: Djokovic 1-0 Nadal (italicized player is next server)
Here we go. Djokovic begins with a second serve, leading into a nice rally finished by the Serb with a beautiful backhand winner down the line. Couldn’t have started much better than that. Nadal nets a second serve return off his forehand — collector’s item — and it’s 30-love. A powerful inside-out forehand from Djokovic is too much to handle and he has three game points in short order. Nadal pulls back to 40-15, forcing an error with a deep forehand down the line, then to 40-30 as his deep return allows him to flay a crosscourt backhand past Djokovic. Big point now. Djokovic passes the first test, forcing an error with a penetrating crosscourt forehand. That was important.
Djokovic 2-0 Nadal
It’ll be interesting to see how Nadal handles this service game; he hasn’t had to play from behind against Djokovic on clay in years. A service winner makes it 15-love, then Djokovic tries to run around a second serve but nets his forehand. Djokovic returns a first serve very deep and quickly overwhelms Nadal’s backhand with pace. 30-15. Now supreme anticipation from Djokovic as he picks off a Nadal approach, after the Serb had twice lost his footing during the point! An early test for Nadal at 30-all. Djokovic nails a gorgeous backhand return onto the baseline, forcing Nadal to net a forehand, and he’s got the first break point of the final. It’s saved well by Nadal with a plus-one drop shot winner. Djokovic slings a forehand long for an unforced error, so it’s advantage Nadal, but Djokovic forces a second deuce, creating space with another extremely deep return and floating a drop shot winner. Djokovic tries another drop shot — Nadal is on to this one, but doesn’t do enough with the reply, allowing the Serb to lift a great lob over him, forcing an error. Break point #2. Nadal saves it with a good wide serve that Djokovic returns long. A high-octane rally occurs; Djokovic forces some open court with a sharp crosscourt backhand and draws the error with an inside-in forehand. Break point again, and Djokovic converts as Nadal goes wide with a backhand after a longish rally! What a game.
Djokovic 2-1 Nadal
This is a big game; Nadal’s proficiency at breaking back is well-known and Djokovic needs to make the most of any advantage he can seize. Djokovic nets a backhand for love-15, then finds a service winner to even the game, Nadal’s return going just long. Djokovic then makes a cardinal sin against Nadal, coming to net off an approach to the forehand without enough width or pace, and can’t handle Nadal’s forehand pass down the line. Djokovic gets to 30-all with another good unreturned serve, but Nadal gets him on the run in the next rally and rushes the net as soon as the Serb tries a moonball, which is dispatched with a smash. Break point. And we’re back on serve as Djokovic errs badly on a first ball backhand!
Djokovic lost all the points in which his serve was returned that game. A trend to keep an eye on. He’s already returning far better than he did at the Roland-Garros final last year, though.
Djokovic 2-2 Nadal
An extended rally kicks off this game; after Nadal gets a decent angle on a backhand, Djokovic curls a forehand down the line wide. Wonderful depth from Djokovic on the first serve return at 15-love, and he forces the error from Nadal after pushing him around the court. Nadal pulls Djokovic well wide of the alley with a ruthless angle on a crosscourt forehand, then rips a forehand behind the Serb as he recovers to the center. Nadal manages space and angles on clay better than anyone else. Djokovic gets back to 30-all as another awesome return sets up an offensive forehand — he actually didn’t do much with it, but Nadal missed long anyway. The Spaniard flings his first ace out wide on the big point. 40-30. Another huge serve seals Nadal’s first hold of the match. This is building up very nicely.
Djokovic 3-2 Nadal
A lucky escape on the first point for Djokovic, he hits a poor smash to Nadal’s forehand, who looks to have a forehand winner down the line set up, but the Spaniard nets it. Djokovic makes Nadal pay for his own bad smash, drawing a volley error with a crosscourt forehand. Nadal will rue that; he’d set the point up well with a forehand down the line. Djokovic bangs an ace — his first — down the middle for 40-love, and takes the first game point with another ace.
Djokovic has been very promising so far. He hasn’t been able to stay on even terms for nearly this long in the last couple clashes with Nadal on the dirt. He is applying pressure to Nadal’s serve, and though he is losing many of the rallies, this hasn’t hurt him too much yet. Djokovic has also hit just one drop shot so far, by my count. This will let him pull the tactic out surprisingly when he needs it.
Djokovic 3-3 Nadal
Nadal cracks a service winner, then opens up the court with his trusty angled crosscourt forehands and crushes an inside-out winner into the created space. Djokovic nets a backhand — he’s not covering that side too well; Nadal has been able to target that side with his forehands for a lot of success. Nadal badly misses a forehand into the net at 40-love, but he’s soon out of the game with an inside-in forehand winner set up by a good serve.
Djokovic 4-3 Nadal
Here’s the crucial seventh game. Nadal actually wrote in his autobiography that it’s often not as important as many think. Djokovic goes up 15-love with a successful net foray that ends with a drop volley winner. Nadal pounds a strong crosscourt backhand, pulling Djokovic out wide. The Serb goes for a low-percentage forehand down the line and it smacks the net. Now a dropper from Djokovic — Nadal tries a counterdropper, and it was badly executed, but Nadal’s quick reflexes allow him to cover Djokovic’s backhand pass and he chops a volley into the open court. 15-30. Djokovic hits a great serve out wide, urging himself on with a quick celebration after. He needs that positivity. Here’s another fist pump after Djokovic overcomes some great Nadal defense, forcing more and more of the court open with his forehand and drawing the error with an inside-in. Game point. Nadal attacks Djokovic’s backhand with his forehand again, and again he gets an error. At deuce, we get a great rally, won by Djokovic after a sharply angled crosscourt backhand. That was a good sign; based on how Djokovic has been hitting his backhands so far, especially defensively, he could be in some trouble if the rallies lengthen. Now a double fault from Djokovic for deuce #2. That was a bad time for his first one of those. Djokovic serves and volleys and hits a pretty good volley, but Nadal makes a fantastic sprint to chase it down and whips a crosscourt forehand past Djokovic. Nadal took a tumble at the end of that slide, his racket flying out of his hand. Looks like he tripped over a line; Jim Courier points out that the lines have been too high this year and have caused some tumbles. Break point, and it’s stunningly saved by Djokovic as he smacks a deep backhand down the line, then hits behind Nadal for a winner. He repeats the trick, pulling Nadal out wide with a sharply angled forehand, then crushing a backhand winner down the line. Gorgeous tennis. Nadal goes for a backhand winner down the line and barely misses, so Djokovic holds.
That was another great game. The first seven games of this match have taken 42 minutes — not as insane as when Djokovic and Nadal needed 41 minutes to play three games in the 2009 Monte-Carlo final, but pretty attritional. Djokovic did a good job of resisting the pressure in that game; Nadal reached break point in dazzling fashion but the Serb held him off with not one but two backhand winners down the line.
Djokovic 4-4 Nadal
Nadal clubs a regulation forehand well long. Love-15. Nadal resets, blasts his crosscourt forehands at Djokovic’s backhand, and the Serb quickly misses one into the net tape. That traditionally super-solid backhand has leaked several errors today. Now a long rally, won by Djokovic as Nadal misses a backhand long. A stat shows us that Djokovic has won eight of the nine 9+ shot rallies so far this match — that’s so impressive, and a reminder that if he’s willing to grind from the baseline, not hitting drop shots can actually be a more successful strategy. Back-to-back forehand winners after the serve take Nadal to 40-30. Clutch hitting. And Djokovic misses his first backhand of the rally on game point, allowing Nadal to hold.
Djokovic 5-4 Nadal
Nadal shanks a forehand from a decent position in the rally; Djokovic had ran out wide to his backhand and Nadal had some space to hit down the line. At 15-love, Nadal pulls the cord on an extended point, feathering a forehand drop shot winner over the net. The Spaniard doesn’t use the shot as often as Djokovic, but he hits it well and it’s capable of being a huge weapon (see his 2018 Wimbledon quarterfinal with del Potro). Nadal sends a backhand return wide for 30-15, but Djokovic sends over his second double fault, setting up a big point at 30-all. Second serve…and despite having a chance to hit an aggressive forehand early in the point, Nadal eventually misses a forehand long. Game point, and Djokovic holds as Nadal fires a backhand long.
This has been a thoroughly fun set to follow. Djokovic has handled pressure well, holding in that marathon seventh game, and has done what he wasn’t willing to do in the Roland-Garros final last year: stand on the baseline and trade groundstrokes with Nadal for long rallies. It’s even more impressive that Djokovic is winning most of them considering that his long schedule yesterday would have most players’ legs screaming. Nadal to serve to stay in the first set.
Djokovic 5-5 Nadal
Nadal opens this pressured game with a backhand winner down the line — Courier tells us that he’s serving at over 80% so far, which is a good thing for him since Djokovic has done a good job on the second serve points. Djokovic attacks, approaching behind a big inside-out forehand, and Nadal nets a pass. Three points from the set at 15-all, which becomes two as Djokovic lands a backhand return flush on the baseline, forcing an error. Huge point coming up, claimed by Nadal as he rams an ace down the tee. Clutch. Another great serve allows Nadal time to run around his forehand, and he creams an inside-out forehand winner. 40-30. That was his 10th forehand winner. Djokovic has hit two. Nadal makes it eleven, forcing Djokovic to resort to a forehand slice that the Spaniard gleefully crushes inside-out. That was a good hold.
Djokovic 5-6 Nadal
Djokovic shows exceptional touch on a drop shot winner; Nadal had no chance to get to that. 15-love. The Spaniard evens the game with a pretty forehand winner down the line for forehand winner #12. Djokovic blasts a great serve down the middle for 30-15; he’s serving far better today than he did at Roland-Garros, which is a big part of why this set is still yet to be decided. Djokovic narrowly misses an attempted backhand winner down the line — big point at 30-all. This match has been enthralling, in part due to the fact that so many service games have gone to 15-30, 30-all, or deuce. Djokovic again resists the pressure well, curling a service winner out wide. He follows it with a double fault, though, his third today. Deuce. Here comes Nadal; he nails a deep, heavy backhand down the line and backs it up with a stinging inside-out forehand winner. Break point to serve for the first set. And Nadal takes it as Djokovic misses a first ball forehand!
Nadal’s done a great job this set of not letting his missed chances get to him; he responded to the 3-all game by holding from 15-30 with three consecutive winners. The point he played at deuce in this last game was immaculate. Still, Djokovic will be furious with his double fault at 40-30. Giving Nadal a window of opportunity on clay, however tiny, has the potential to bite anyone quickly.
Nadal wins the first set 7-5!
Nadal misses an inside-in forehand; he went for too much there. The Spaniard then nets a backhand under no pressure and Djokovic has a half-chance at love-30 to send this to a tiebreak. Nadal hits a great serve up the middle, forcing Djokovic to pick a side to cover, and Nadal finds the open court with an inside-in forehand winner — #14 from that wing in this set. That’s a massive tally. Now Nadal curls an ace out wide to climb back to 30-all. His serving has been great, he’s still making over 80% of his first serves. Here’s a second, but Djokovic has a brainfart and decides to hit loopy balls to Nadal’s forehand. The second one is demolished for an inside-out forehand winner. Set point. Djokovic brilliantly saves it, returning Nadal’s first serve well with an inside-out forehand and following it up with a perfect drop shot. Djokovic does very well to get a first serve return to Nadal’s backhand, but slips at the end of a deuce-court rally and sails a forehand. Set point #2, and Nadal takes it by clocking an inside-out forehand off a Djokovic slice! 7-5 in 75 minutes.
Nadal hit 15 forehand winners in that set. That should be a good indication of how high-level the frame was, considering how well Djokovic hung around. The score was the same as the last set these two played on clay before this match — 7-5 — but make no mistake, this set was far better than the third of the 2020 Roland-Garros final. Both players showed their unparalleled ability to resist pressure on big points, and both player toughed out difficult holds until Djokovic cracked with a double fault at 5-5, 40-30. Nadal barged into the opening with a forehand winner on the next point, then served out the set with a flurry of point-ending shots after going down love-30. Small margins, but the first set is Nadal’s, and Djokovic has a mountain to climb now.
Second set: Djokovic 1-0 Nadal
At 15-love, Nadal dances around his backhand and drills an inside-out forehand winner. Djokovic then makes a first ball error, going long with an inside-out forehand, and here’s instant pressure at 15-30. The Serb attacks, eventually forcing a forehand error from Nadal. Then a perfect point from Djokovic, pulling a great inside-in forehand into Nadal’s backhand corner and putting away the ensuing swing volley. Djokovic holds as Nadal bends a forehand into the top of the net.
Djokovic 1-1 Nadal
Djokovic kept himself in the match by holding there. He has beaten Nadal once on clay from a set down — indeed, on this very court in the 2014 Rome final. He begins this game well by attacking Nadal’s forehand corner and forcing the Spaniard to hit long for love-15. Djokovic smacks a great return off of what was actually quite a good second serve from Nadal, who nets a backhand to go down love-30. His forehand comes to the rescue, an inside-out bolt setting up a baseline smash (it was a great, deep lob from Djokovic) that the Serb can’t get back. At 15-30, Nadal hits a short slice to Djokovic’s forehand, who advances on the ball to take it as an approach, but slams it badly into the net. Djokovic aims for the corner with a backhand down the line and misses narrowly, then Nadal forces a return error with a good body serve, and the chance is gone.
Djokovic 2-1 Nadal
Djokovic opens with a service winner, then tries a drop shot that barely even reaches the bottom of the net. 15-all. He sails a forehand long on the first shot after the serve. If Djokovic is fatiguing, it’s more than understandable after that grueling first set. The Serb isn’t capitulating, though, and pulls Nadal from corner to corner until the error arrives. At 30-all, Djokovic floats a backhand just long after a low slice from the Spaniard. It looks as if Djokovic’s groundstrokes are losing a bit of pop. Break point. It’s saved well as Djokovic clocks an inside-in forehand after a good wide serve. Djokovic is now windmilling his arm as if to stretch his shoulder. He cracks an ace down the middle to reach advantage, then another for the hold! Exceptional play under pressure at the end of that game. Djokovic has been under pressure in many of his service games, but to his immense credit has only been broken twice.
Djokovic 3-1 Nadal
After a strong rally, Djokovic lets loose with a drop shot, and it’s good for a winner. Love-15. Nadal goes for a drop shot of his own, but it’s not executed nearly as well, and Djokovic crushes a crosscourt forehand reply that forces Nadal to go long. Djokovic gets good width on a backhand return, but Nadal’s good angled forehand sets him up for an inside-out forehand winner for 15-30. That was his 17th forehand winner. Nadal tries another drop shot, this one from a much more offensive position, but misses it when much of the court was at his mercy. Two break points for Djokovic. Second serve on the first, and the Serb finds a heavy, precise crosscourt backhand that Nadal can’t do anything with. Djokovic breaks!
Djokovic 4-1 Nadal
This is another huge game; Djokovic needs to extend his lead to keep up his momentum. He makes a promising start, hurling a forehand down the line winner off a good Nadal return. A double fault follows, and Nadal finds a ridiculous crosscourt backhand passing shot that came after quite a good approach from Djokovic. That might’ve been the shot of the match. 15-30. Djokovic’s second serve is very slow — 127 km/h — so naturally, a neutral rally takes place, ending when Nadal curiously loops a backhand long. Djokovic delivers a timely service winner for 40-30, but he can’t take the game point, Nadal dragging the game to deuce with a massive inside-out forehand winner. Djokovic hits an awesome wide serve that pulls Nadal way off the court, then goes behind him with a crosscourt forehand. Clutch, again. Here’s a second chance for Djokovic to get to 4-1, and again he wins the point behind a slow second serve, Nadal missing a backhand wide with much of the court open.
That was an interesting turnaround. Nadal’s level has dipped, but Djokovic has also started to win more of the big points — he did a good job of it in that game; three times Nadal was two points from breaking, but Djokovic never allowed him to get to break point. He also held from 15-30 to start the second set and saved a break point at 1-all.
Djokovic 5-1 Nadal
This hasn’t been all that physical of a set yet, so if Djokovic can win it without expending too much energy, he could well have a chance in the third. Nadal powers a pair of service winners for 30-love, then misses a neutral forehand. The Spaniard double faults for 30-all, and is now in some real danger of falling too far behind to win the second set. Djokovic streaks a beautiful backhand winner down the line — break point for 5-1 against Nadal, on clay. The Serb misses a second serve backhand return just wide. That could haunt him if Nadal holds here. A service winner gives the Spaniard a game point, but the game goes back to deuce as Nadal misses a very ambitious forehand down the line. Djokovic misses another second serve return, but bites back with a magical forehand down the line from a defensive position, giving him time and space for a drop shot winner. Deuce #3. Nadal lifts a backhand long after a deuce-court rally, giving Djokovic another break point for 5-1. And it’s taken as Nadal nets a backhand!
That was a shocking turn of events. Djokovic hit several great shots that game, but it got unnecessarily competitive after Nadal missed an easy forehand at 30-love and then double faulted at 30-15.
Djokovic wins the second set 6-1!
It’s 15-all after a service winner and a missed backhand from Djokovic. Another unreturned serve makes it 30-15 — the Serb needs to accept the gifts he’s been given and slam the door on this set. Nadal misses a second serve return and Djokovic has two set points. A forehand misses somewhat wildly on the first, then the Spaniard whirls away an inside-out forehand winner on the second to get back to deuce. Djokovic whacks an ace down the middle to reach set point for a third time, and this one is converted as the Serb mixes up his angles and height on shots nicely, eventually forcing Nadal to hit long off a low forehand!
That was a strange set in many ways. It seemed as if Nadal might run away with the match early on, but Djokovic came up with clutch holds at 0-0, 1-1, and 3-1, saving a break point in the process and winning the 15-30, 30-all, and deuce points. Nadal might have had a chance to get back in the set if he’d held at 1-4, but a couple bad errors helped turn the game into a slugfest, and the unrelenting pressure Djokovic was applying eventually proved decisive. The Serb then didn’t blink as Nadal saved two set points at 5-1, staying calm to crush an ace and play a clever tactical rally on his third set point.
Djokovic’s reward for winning a set that began competitively and ended clinically is a third set — let’s get into it!
Third set: Djokovic 0-1 Nadal
Nadal’s dips are never likely to last long, especially not on clay, and he’s quickly up 30-love in this game after a lucky mishit backhand set him up for a winner. Nadal tries to set up a forehand by hitting a deep, loopy shot to Djokovic’s backhand, but the Serb dupes him with a drop shot, Nadal’s reply going into the net. Djokovic nets a second serve return for 40-15 and Nadal plays a fantastic point to hold, firing bullets down the line on both wings until Djokovic sends a forehand wide.
Djokovic 1-1 Nadal
In the 2019 Rome final, Djokovic forced a third set with Nadal, but was broken to begin the decider and eventually lost it 6-1. He’ll want to avoid a similar situation by holding here. He lifts a backhand long for love-15. Djokovic hits a sub-optimal drop shot, but comes up with a beautiful backhand overhead winner to dispatch Nadal’s lobbed reply. The Spaniard runs down a drop shot on the next point as well, punching Djokovic’s dink into the open court and pumping his first. Real danger now at 15-30, which the Serb evades well with some penetrating forehands. Nadal overpowers Djokovic’s forehand with his backhand, earning a very short forehand, but he shockingly hits it long, giving his opponent a game point. Djokovic converts with a stunning, needle-precise backhand winner down the line that was struck off a well-angled Nadal forehand.
Djokovic 1-2 Nadal
Nadal opens up the court with a forehand down the line, slicing a drop shot winner off Djokovic’s defensive reply. The Serb is then forced to hit a moonball after being handcuffed on a backhand, which Nadal crushes for an inside-in forehand winner (his 22nd from that wing!). Djokovic nets a forehand down the line and Nadal holds to love with a service winner. That was the easiest service game for either player for a long time.
Djokovic 2-2 Nadal
Djokovic opens the game exactly as Nadal did the last one: pushing his opponent way back with a forehand down the line and then hitting a drop shot winner. Lovely play. Djokovic goes long with a forehand for 15-all, then lashes a crosscourt backhand that opens up the court for an inside-out forehand winner. Nadal sets up the 30-15 point well with a forehand down the line, then a drop shot, but he dabs a slice wide with Djokovic at his mercy. The Serb holds to 15 as Nadal slams a backhand wide.
This match still feels open. Nadal is an easy pick for the favorite by virtue of his wealth of achievements on clay, but this is a competitive final. The Spaniard’s level has gone up from the end of the second set, but not by too much, and hasn’tt had a break point for a full set now.
Djokovic 2-3 Nadal
At 15-love, Djokovic blasts a return onto the baseline, forcing Nadal to miss wildly. That return is a big part of why he’s hounded Nadal throughout the past decade-plus like no other, and he has returned well today. Djokovic has 15-30 after a spectacular forehand winner down the line, but misses a big chance by lifting a backhand return just wide. A great point ensues at 30-all — Nadal tries another moonball to Djokovic’s backhand and the Serb hits another drop shot, eventually lobbing Nadal, hitting a smash, and watching his opponent’s forehand sail long. Break point. Djokovic is way ahead in the rally after a sweet, cutting inside-in forehand, but the Serb bashes a sitting inside-out forehand into the net. Nadal screams. That was a bad miss and potentially a hugely costly miss. Djokovic pushes Nadal way back with his return, the Spaniard gets back into the rally with a great crosscourt backhand, then the Serb runs down a drop shot and pokes a wonderfully deep reply that sets up a volley winner. Break point #2, again saved by Nadal, this time with a nerveless backhand winner down the line. This is some of Djokovic-Nadal at its best. A deep backhand to Djokovic’s backhand corner sees the Serb’s shot clip the net tape and fall back to his side. Advantage Nadal, and the Spaniard holds with a brutal forehand down the line that Djokovic can’t do anything with. Massive hold.
That game brought some kind of uptick in intensity. Djokovic hit some incredible shots, the highlights the forehand winner at 15-all and the riposte off the drop shot on the first deuce, but he was denied the break by a bad forehand error and a clutch backhand winner from Nadal. Each player is working hard to push the other off the cliff, and Nadal managed to cling on there.
Djokovic 2-4 Nadal
Nadal slots a forehand winner down the line, assisted by the net cord. One of his shots clipped the tape on break point #1 last game — the top of the net has been very kind to him this clay season. Djokovic balloons a backhand long and is now up against it at love-30. He’s made eight unforced errors to Nadal’s two so far this set. Nadal defends well off an attacking crosscourt backhand from Djokovic, then the Serb’s next shot hits the tape and sits up, allowing Nadal to bash away a forehand winner. He might need to pay the net when this one is over. At love-40, Djokovic hits a brilliant serve that Nadal somehow gets back, then approaches the net behind an inside-in forehand, but Nadal reads it seamlessly and smacks a glorious backhand down the line clean past Djokovic. Nadal has broken!
Djokovic 2-5 Nadal
At love-15, Djokovic goes for a backhand down the line, but it goes just long. It wasn’t that close to the sideline even if it had gone in. The Serb loses his balance and sprays a shot wide for 30-15. Nadal has won nine of the last ten points and this match is rapidly slipping away from Djokovic. Nadal has two game points after a service winner. He holds after a bizarre point — he has what seems like half a dozen chances to hit a winner to the open court, but Djokovic reads a forehand and gains the advantage with a backhand down the line, then approaches on his next shot only to see Nadal rip a crosscourt forehand past him. Nadal is one game from the title.
Djokovic 3-5 Nadal
The end seems near as Djokovic nets a backhand under no pressure. He’s made an outstanding physical effort today, especially considering how much tennis he played yesterday. An inside-in forehand makes it 15-all, but another first ball error sees Nadal move to within two points from the title. Still fighting, Djokovic finds a great wide serve. Nadal is relentless, though. Great depth draws a weaker groundstroke from the Serb, and Nadal sprints in and bashes a crosscourt backhand winner. Championship point. Second serve…and Nadal shanks the return. That was an aggressive second serve; well calculated by Djokovic. A short forehand from Nadal sees Djokovic step in and sweep a crosscourt backhand past the Spaniard, and he has a chance to hold. Nadal is way up in the point after a huge return, but he nets a drop shot, and Djokovic holds after escaping championship point! Nadal will now serve for the match.
Nadal beats Djokovic 7-5, 1-6, 6-3!
Nadal gets off to a good start with a one-two punch, his inside-in forehand winner marking his 26th forehand winner of the match. Many players don’t hit that many forehand winners in best-of-five, on faster surfaces, against worse defenders. Djokovic scrambles well early in the next point, turning the rally around with a brilliant crosscourt backhand that allows him to run in and hit a crosscourt forehand winner. 15-all. A service winner to Djokovic’s backhand brings Nadal two points away from the title for the fourth time. The Serb is still pushing hard, and forces an error with a vicious inside-in forehand. Huge point at 30-all. Djokovic goes just long with a backhand return. Championship point #2. And Nadal wins his 10th title in Rome as Djokovic springs a backhand wide!
Impressions
That was a splendid final, and one that exceeded many expectations. Everlasting credit should be given to Novak Djokovic after that performance, which was brave and produced a very tight match. Despite his draining matches yesterday, Djokovic came into this match willing to hurt, matching Nadal from the baseline instead of bailing out of rallies with drop shots. When Nadal edged out a long, close first set that could have gone either way, Djokovic refused to tap out. He fought for tough holds early in the second set, then leapt to a big lead in the frame by breaking Nadal twice.
He should regret very little in the third set. Yes, he missed a not just makeable but potentially point-ending forehand on break point at 2-all and erred on a return at 30-all in the final game, but his fight was undying. After losing that classically attritional 2-all game, Nadal picked up speed, streaking all the way to championship point on Djokovic’s serve at 5-2. Djokovic not only escaped with a gutsy second serve, but held serve and made Nadal sweat when he served for the match.
This was the best that Djokovic has played on clay against Nadal since Rome in 2016. Knowing the risks of a difficult loss and the clay title-hoarding monster he was up against, he gave his all anyway through a fantastic first set and managed to beat back the Spaniard in the second. Even in the third, he played plenty of brilliant shots — it just wasn’t quite enough to accomplish the most difficult task on tour: beating Nadal on clay.
Regardless, Djokovic can take away plenty of positives from this match. Prior to Rome, his clay form had been underwhelming, but he displayed his ample talent, never-say-die nature, and love for the fight in not just this match, but his wins over Tsitsipas and Sonego. Despite the fact that Djokovic won Rome last year, it’s easy to argue that he’s headed into Roland-Garros this year in a better position. He made more headway against Nadal on clay today than he had in years, and he’ll need to be prepared for a rematch in Paris.
In sum, Djokovic reminded everyone today why he’s such an incredible champion. He’s the favorite in practically every match he plays except ones against Nadal on clay, but even in that very situation today he threw everything he could at his great rival. It just wasn’t quite enough.
As for the victor, he will look upon this victory fondly. Likely not for the tying of the record haul of Masters 1000s, but for the fact that he met Djokovic on even terms on a very high plane for a stretch during that third set, and Nadal not only came out on top, but rode his momentum. After escaping a pair of break points at 2-all, the Spaniard attacked Djokovic’s serve with fury, breaking to love with a bullet of a backhand pass. Things got a bit nervy at the end, but Nadal came through the last game with a bit of help from Djokovic.
Nadal’s forehand was out in force today — he hit 26 forehand winners. He served incredibly well, making over 80% of his serves in the first set, and surviving a couple tough service games in that delightful opening frame. The Spaniard had a noticeable dip in the second set, but navigated it well, rebounding strongly in the third.
Nadal and Djokovic reaffirmed how exceptional this rivalry is. When both are firing simultaneously, when both are striking the ball well and running from corner to corner and willing to play draining rallies if necessary, there is just no higher standard in men’s tennis.
There has been a lot of talk over the clay season about the order of the ATP favorites for Roland-Garros. After today, there should be no doubt that Nadal is the favorite, followed by Djokovic. If they can play at this standard in Paris — and they have for so many years — this is just not subject to change yet. These two are so knowledgeable in not just how to peak during matches, but how to peak during seasons, and it seems that each has timed their build perfectly.
Tennis is unpredictable, and many young players are still developing. But the fact that Djokovic and Nadal still reside atop the rankings and are collecting the most majors is incredibly telling. Multiple generations have had opportunities to knock them from the mountaintop, but their and Roger Federer’s longevity is so imposing that the term “LostGen” was coined for players who were supposed to take over. And while Nadal and Djokovic will continue to slowly decline from their astonishing peaks, it is clear that their eventual decline will be because they can no longer sustain their highest level, not because other players are better than they are.