Hello and thanks for choosing to follow this piece on the upcoming quarterfinal between Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas for a spot in the Rome semifinals! As with the previous edition of the live recap, I’m writing the preview the day before the match and will be back tomorrow for the game-by-game report.
Match Preview
This match feels more momentous than your typical Masters 1000 quarterfinal for a variety of reasons. First is that during this clay season, besides Nadal claiming favorite status at Roland-Garros almost by default, it seems as if the other ATP favorites are still being shuffled around. Djokovic — the world number one — is usually the second favorite, but his clay season so far has been disappointing. He uncharacteristically lost in straight sets to Dan Evans in Monte-Carlo and fell in three hours and 27 minutes to a clutch Aslan Karatsev in Belgrade. While the second loss saw him fight incredibly hard and deliver some great shots, Djokovic is yet to have a good result this clay season.
By comparison, Tsitsipas has been lighting up the red dirt. He claimed his first Masters 1000 title in Monte-Carlo without dropping a set and made the final in Barcelona. There, against Nadal, he fell in a heartbreakingly close three-setter, but not before having championship point. Even in the first set, which he lost 6-4, the Greek had opportunities to build big leads, and made Nadal uncomfortable for the majority of the frame. Tsitsipas is currently leading the ATP Race to Turin. His return, the biggest weakness in his game, is offset by the slower clay, his forehand defense has been stunning, and his heavy groundstrokes regularly push his opponents back. All this on top of his powerful serve and fine touch at net have made for a menacing package of skills for any rival to face.
There is a lot at stake in this matchup. These two contested a Roland-Garros semifinal in 2020 in which Tsitsipas bravely pushed Djokovic to a fifth set. If the Greek can extend his impressive streak on clay and win this match, it would give him a world of confidence ahead of a potential rematch in Paris this year, and for the remainder of Rome. For Djokovic, the prize on the line is an anchor to his clay season. If he is to lose this match, he will head into Roland-Garros without an impressive result on clay in 2021 (he’s going to play Belgrade 2 after Rome, but it’s a 250 and the competition pales in comparison to what he will see in Rome or Paris). And while he may do well at Roland-Garros anyway, starting a major low on confidence is never ideal, not least when a likely clash with 13-time champion Nadal looms in the later rounds. But if he can win, he will have recorded a first top-five (and top-ten) win of the clay season and will look to have made his way into fine form in time for Roland-Garros.
Djokovic’s game is better than Tsitsipas’s (he is the world number one, after all, and may have the most technically complete game in history), but it seems that the Greek’s is possibly now more suited to clay. Djokovic’s serve has improved tremendously in the last couple years, yet it is doing far less damage on clay than it did on the hard courts of Melbourne Park. And this isn’t just down to a slower surface — Djokovic seems less willing to go for aces or service winners on his first serve on clay, meaning fewer free points. His forehand, too, has been lacking penetration in his matches during this stretch of the season. As such, Djokovic has had some difficulty finishing points and has resorted frequently to the drop shot to end rallies.
Here are some of the potential difference-makers in the matchup:
1. Djokovic’s serve
As stated above, Djokovic has refined his serve into an imposing weapon, but on clay it loses some of its bite. Will he be able to land enough first serves to expose Tsitsipas’s often sub-optimal returning? If so, he can start more points on his terms and do what he loves, dictating play from the baseline and picking at his opponent’s backhand whenever he chooses. But if Tsitsipas is able to get into return games consistently, Djokovic will be forced to play more neutral rallies, which may not be in his favor if his forehand isn’t firing at full strength. In his last match against Taylor Fritz — who isn’t exactly known as an elite returner — Djokovic won just 44% of his second serve points, a number that will likely need to rise if he is to win this match.
2. The forehands
Tsitsipas’s forehand has been a sight to behold this clay season. He’s been able to hit it with constant depth and weight, and his defense from that side is outstanding. Tsitsipas will need to make headway in the crosscourt forehand rallies, by either overpowering Djokovic from that wing or peppering that side of the court to reduce his opponent’s confidence in that stroke. His forehand defense will also be crucial; if he can make it difficult for Djokovic to hit through him, the Serb may well resort to the drop shot more and more often. And if Tsitsipas can erase the sense of surprise when Djokovic hits a drop shot, forcing him to use it so often that it becomes telegraphed at times, he will have an easier time running them down.
Djokovic’s forehand will also need to be firing to win this match. It’s expected that he’ll hit many inside-out forehands, targeting the weaker backhand wing of Tsitsipas, but he should also mix in inside-in forehands to put the Greek on the run. If Djokovic’s forehand isn’t up to the task of finishing points, he may have to be more aggressive than he’s accustomed to and target the area close to the lines with his forehands.
3. Djokovic’s drop shot
Djokovic has turned to the dropper many times during his recent matches on clay. He has great feel on the shot and it adds some unpredictability to his tennis, but it can also be a bail-out shot if he is not up to par in the baseline rallies. Djokovic will have to be careful not to overuse the drop shot, particularly if Tsitsipas wins many of the early rallies from the back of the court. If the world number one is playing well, Tsitsipas will be unsure of exactly where to stand depth-wise, having to be conscious of both Djokovic’s deep forehands/backhands and a possible drop shot. But if Djokovic struggles to end points with his forehand and has to use the drop shot excessively, he could be in for a world of hurt in the longer points. Tsitsipas is also quick to move around the court, so Djokovic’s execution of the drop shot will need to be good.
Prediction
It’s always difficult to bet against Djokovic, but the feeling is that Tsitsipas’s good form combined with the world number one’s shakiness during this clay season make for a nasty combination for the Serb. It’s worth noting that Tsitsipas has actually never beaten Djokovic on clay — the Serb leads that head-to-head 4-2 overall and 2-0 on clay. Still, Djokovic will probably have to play his best match of the clay season to win this quarterfinal, and while he’s great at lifting his level against top players, the current difference in form is striking. Tsitsipas in three sets.
First set: Djokovic 0-1 Tsitsipas (italicized player is next to serve)
Djokovic wins the toss and elects to serve. In their Roland-Garros match last year, it wasn’t a slow start that killed Tsitsipas in the first two sets, it was an inability to convert game points and break points. That’s something to keep an eye on as well as level of play. Djokovic begins with a double-fault, having just missed an ace on his first serve. We then get a long rally, won by the world number one as Tsitsipas’s backhand floats long for 15-all. Another baseline duel takes place, which is quickly cut short by Djokovic as he feathers a drop shot winner, no doubt the first of many to come in this match. It’s 30-all when Djokovic misses a first ball forehand and the Serb cracks a forehand down the line into the top of the net, giving Tsitsipas the first break point of the quarterfinal. Djokovic weirdly hits a very tentative first serve, and Tsitsipas takes control of the rally with a forehand down the line, belting away a swing volley to break!
Djokovic 0-2 Tsitsipas
In each of the clay matches between these two, Djokovic has led from the start, so let’s see if Tsitsipas can hang on to the early advantage here. It’s quickly love-15 when Tsitsipas goes long with a backhand before the Greek bites back with a service winner. Djokovic narrowly misses a crosscourt backhand pass — Tsitsipas was a bit fortunate there. 30-15. Djokovic is on top early in the next rally, but Tsitsipas defends well, neutralizes the point, and…goes for a terrible drop shot that bounces before it even gets to the net. Yikes. Djokovic gets incredible depth on a first serve return, forcing the error, and here’s a break-back point. It’s saved with a stunning backhand winner down the line from Tsitsipas after a long rally. He was having to hit backhand after backhand there and an error looked likely; that was a clutch shot. Djokovic’s next return pushes Tsitsipas wide to the forehand, drawing another miss, so it’s break point #2. This one is saved as well as Djokovic awkwardly squeezes a backhand wide. Strange miss there. Tsitsipas emphatically bounces a smash away for advantage, but it’s deuce again when Tsitsipas misses another drop shot. He shouldn’t bother with those for the moment; the baseline rallies are going well for him and it’s not a shot he hits as well as Djokovic. Tsitsipas forces an error with a hefty inside-out forehand and has a second look to consolidate. He does with a powerful service winner.
Djokovic 1-2 Tsitsipas
Djokovic hits a service winner for 30-love. He then pounces on a Tsitsipas slice, rolling an inside-out forehand winner. A similar winner seals a quick hold to love.
My Tennis Channel stream has switched to the similarly exciting matchup of Ash Barty and Coco Gauff, which I probably should have planned for. I unfortunately can’t continue to recap what I can’t watch, but I’ll switch over to a live recap of this match and provide updates on Djokovic-Tsitsipas if the stream switches back at any point. No time for a preview, unfortunately.
First set: Barty 1-0 Gauff
A strong rally occurs at love-15; Gauff hits a backhand down the line off the first slice she sees from Barty, forcing a forehand error. A deep crosscourt forehand from Gauff earns her three break points right away. The first is saved with a good serve-plus-one from Barty, the inside-in forehand going for a winner. Barty then survives an extremely deep return from Gauff, staying in the rally until her opponent hits a backhand wide. The third break point is saved as well as Barty opens up space and forces an error with an inside-out forehand. Gauff runs down a drop shot but goes just long with her attempted backhand winner. Advantage Barty. Gauff’s return clips the net and falls over for deuce #2. Barty reaches ad again with a service winner, but she’s hauled back to deuce after missing an inside-out forehand. Gauff hits long early in the next rally and Barty slams an ace down the middle to complete a difficult hold.
Over on the Foro Italico, Tsitsipas still has his break at 3-1 and Djokovic is now 0/5 on break points. Quite the role reversal from the 2020 Roland-Garros semifinal.
Barty 1-1 Gauff
Gauff defends a deep crosscourt forehand from Barty, manages to get the ball to her opponent’s backhand, and watches Barty’s shot fly long. The world number one then lands a cunning backhand slice down the line on the baseline — winner. It’s 15-30 after Gauff misses a forehand wide, but good aggressive play takes her to 30-all. She nets a forehand for 30-40, though. All of her serves have come back, but a brilliantly timed ace wipes away the break point. A second ace in a row then takes her to advantage. Wow. Barty then misses a second serve return and Gauff holds.
Barty 1-2 Gauff
A first ball miss from Barty followed by a well-executed serve-plus-one from Barty makes it 15-all quickly. A double fault follows, and Gauff claims a long rally with a pretty drop shot. Barty slipped a bit earlier in that point. Two break points for the 17-year-old. Gauff nets a backhand return off a second serve for 30-40, but Barty stabs a volley wide on break point #2, and Gauff is up the early break!
Tsitsipas has broken again and leads Djokovic 4-1, 30-15. I wrote earlier that Djokovic would have to play his best match of the clay season to win this one, but he’ll have to click into gear just to avoid getting crushed in this set.
Barty 2-2 Gauff
Gauff shanks a forehand midway through the rally at 15-all; it lands in, but Barty eventually wins the point anyway. The American errs on a sharply angled crosscourt backhand, then Barty cleverly threads an unexpected inside-out backhand through Gauff’s defenses. 15-40. And Barty breaks back with a backhand volley winner!
Rain is picking up, and the lines are deemed too slippery to continue, so there’ll be a break in play.
Something Gauff could probably do more of is try to force crosscourt backhand rallies; her topspin backhand is more powerful and reliable than Barty’s. The world number one would surely counter with backhand slices, but receiving those is surely preferable to Barty’s fierce forehands. That said, Gauff has been holding her own well against the best player in the world. The back-to-back aces in the second game were so impressive, and she’s not making many impatient errors.
Djokovic has gotten one break back against Tsitsipas, but the Greek will still serve up a break at 4-3. Djokovic has even won the same number of points as Tsitsipas — 28 — but trails by a break nonetheless. The price of losing more big points.
There are some interesting parallels between these two matches. Both involve a world number one. Each involves a player who has had spectacular results this clay season (Barty and Tsitsipas, though Gauff is on a great run this week, having beaten top players Maria Sakkari and Aryna Sabalenka). The results of both matches feel as if they will be telling — can Gauff hang with the best on clay? Is Djokovic’s best level on clay well and truly behind him, and should Tsitsipas be considered a bigger threat at Roland-Garros? How much will Barty’s odds in Paris suffer if she is to lose today?
A lovely part of tennis matches is that each tells a story that is part of a larger epic. Today’s matches, as pivotal as they might be, will probably be dwarfed by the more momentous chapter of the clay season that is Roland-Garros. And while professional players are incredibly fine-tuned mentally and have mastered approaching matches one at a time, it must be in the back of their minds that Paris is the goal of this chunk of the season.
It’s also intriguing to consider how wildly different these players’ ages and experience levels are. Djokovic has been outspoken about the fact that he wants to peak in majors. He won’t be gutted if he loses to Tsitsipas today; his eyes are locked on Roland-Garros and today is a stepping stone on the path to Paris. Meanwhile, Gauff, who at 17 years of age is barely half as old as Djokovic, likely looks at her match today as more of an opportunity to make a deep run at the tournament going on now. Beating Barty would be one of the biggest wins of her career (but not quite at the level of when she beat Naomi Osaka in the 2020 Australian Open). She will surely try to peak for Roland-Garros as well, but she knows that she may well play Roland-Garros another dozen times in her career, while Djokovic, despite being the world number one, knows that the best part of his career is behind him.
This is not to say that one approach is better than the other, it’s just fun to observe how tennis matches can mean wildly different things to different players based on where they are in their career. Just as matches and sections of the calendar tell stories, so too do careers. Each match has the potential to be a crushing defeat or a thrilling victory, and while the magnitude of a match has much to do with this, the way a match is won does as well. A key to making victory as likely as possible is not being fearful during the points in which everything hangs in the balance — a berth in the next round and prize money and emotions and confidence. How Gauff, Djokovic, Barty, and Tsitsipas will manage these points remains to be seen; each match is still very much open.
At long last, the players are back on court and warming up.
Barty 3-2 Gauff
Here we go, after a delay of nearly two hours. Barty begins her 2-all service game with a great forehand passing shot down the line after Gauff had hit a decent slice approach. A big serve makes it 30-all. A wayward forehand from the world number one sails wide of the sideline, but she’s got two game points after a good second serve goes unreturned. Barty punches a forehand volley beyond Gauff’s reach, clinching a hold to 15.
Well, rain has started to fall again and it looks like there will be another delay. Delightful.
Covers are back on the Grand Stand Arena, where Barty and Gauff were playing, so it looks like we may have a while before play begins again. This must be difficult for all four players whose matches have been interrupted, but particularly for Gauff and Barty. It seemed that their match was still warming up; the first five games involved plenty of great shots but it feels as if not much has been established in terms of how the contest will go or by way of tactics. Djokovic and Tsitsipas, on the other hand, have played two more games and had more multi-deuce games, so there’s more match material for them to analyze during the break.
With some extra time, here’s some commentary on what’s at stake in the Barty-Gauff match. Gauff probably has more to gain by winning this match — she’s already been on a great run this week, and beating the world number one would be the best possible continuation of that. Barty, meanwhile, has won in Stuttgart and made the final in Madrid, so a loss here wouldn’t be a huge blow to her clay season. Her number one ranking is safe for a while, and with recent titles under her belt, much of her focus is likely on securing a major this year. As such, this feels like a much lower-stakes match for her than it is for Gauff.
Barty 4-4 Gauff
The match has resumed, and I’ve missed a little bit of it, but we’ll pick back up with Gauff serving at 3-4, and this game has gone to 30-all after Barty wrong-foots her with a backhand slice winner down the line. Gauff resists the pressure with a service winner, and she holds after Barty floats a slice return long.
Barty 5-4 Gauff
Barty curls a service winner out wide for 30-15. A forehand then flies on the world number one, though, and she’s under some pressure of her own at 30-all. Gauff gets great width on a floating stretch return, but Barty smacks a forehand winner down the line anyway. That was beautifully timed. Barty sends a crosscourt backhand wide for deuce. Despite some good defense from Gauff, the 17-year-old shanks a backhand wide, and Barty holds after Gauff goes long with a forehand.
This will be quite the pressured service game; it doesn’t get much more difficult than serving to stay in a set against the world number one.
Barty wins the first set 6-4!
Barty is three points from the set at 15-all when Gauff nets a forehand. The American lost her footing a bit there. Barty is ruthless with an inside-in forehand and bounds to net to put away the smash for 15-30. Big points ahead. Barty scythes a nasty short slice off the return, giving Gauff no opportunity to reach the ball before its second bounce. Two set points. Gauff saves the first with a nice volley, the aggressive position set up by an awesome second serve and a sharply angled forehand. A clutch service winner from the 17-year old saves the second — those were two impressive points. She goes for another big second serve at deuce and barely misses, so set point #3. Gauff rips an inside-in forehand winner after a Barty backhand clipped the net tape and sat up to save it. She nets a backhand after a deep return from the world number one. Set point yet again, and it’s well saved yet again, this time after a huge second serve down the middle doesn’t come back. This is some bravery on the second delivery. Gauff waves a forehand wide after another firm return from Barty. Set point #5. Gauff has a look at a backhand down the line, but doesn’t get enough width on her approach, allowing Barty to carve a great forehand passing shot crosscourt. It flies past Gauff, and that’s the first set!
That was a fantastic game to end the set. Gauff will be disappointed with the two first ball errors at deuce and the approach shot on the fifth set point, but she showed plenty of good signs in that game with clutch second serves and the willingness to go for shots under pressure. That was a close set in which Gauff broke serve and was in other service games, so if the 17-year-old’s level doesn’t dip, the competitiveness could well continue into the second set.
Second set: Barty 1-0 Gauff
At 15-all, Barty rolls a vicious second serve ace out wide. She sails a forehand long, so a half-chance for Gauff to break at 30-all. Barty plays a clinical point, serving out wide, hitting a forehand approach down the line, and clipping her forehand volley into the open court. A good return from Gauff draws a first ball error for deuce, but Barty quickly has advantage again after a one-two punch. Deuce #2 after Barty nets a drop shot. Barty then hits a very central slice approach and Gauff rips a backhand down the line for a clean pass. First break point of the second set, and it’s saved as Gauff tries her own slice approach and is defeated by a two-shot pass, Barty finishing with an inside-out forehand. Gauff lifts a forehand long, giving Barty a third chance to get out of the game, and this one is taken as Gauff misses another forehand.
Barty 1-1 Gauff
Gauff begins this game with a service winner. Barty gets good depth on a backhand return and fires away a forehand winner on her next shot for 15-all. Barty swings a forehand long under no pressure; that was a bad miss. Gauff forces an error with a great inside-in forehand and seals an emphatic hold to 15 with an ace. That’s a very positive start to this set.
Barty 2-1 Gauff
Gauff has a chance to win the first point of this game, but doesn’t do enough with a forehand volley and Barty eventually passes her with a backhand down the line. A service winner makes it 30-love before Gauff forces an error with a gorgeous inside-out backhand. Barty feathers a drop shot over the net that is made better by the help of the net cord, but I’m not sure Gauff would have gotten there anyway, it was well hit. Barty holds when Gauff slams a forehand into the net.
This is really shocking — Barty has just retired from the match; Jason Goodall mentioned her pointing to her elbow. No doubt a smart decision not to risk injury ahead of Roland-Garros, but I didn’t see anything affecting her play at all.
This is a real shame for the match, since the parts of the first set I saw were quite competitive, with Gauff matching Barty’s high standard, but let this take nothing away from Gauff’s level in the match. She made things difficult for Barty at the end of the first set and looked to have made a good start to the second. She will advance to the semifinals, and while this match was not completed, Gauff has been very impressive all week.
Barty may have had both an arm and a leg issue. Whether it’s just the leg or both, hopefully she makes a recovery of the utmost speed ahead of Roland-Garros, where she will be one of the favorites if healthy. There’s no questioning that this was a smart decision, in wet conditions with heavier balls there was a risk of any injury being exacerbated, and with Barty aiming at Roland-Garros, health is of the utmost importance.
Djokovic and Tsitsipas should be resuming soon, so I’ll continue this tumultuous liveblog. Tsitsipas currently leads by a break at 4-3 up.
First set: Tsitsipas 5-3 Djokovic
The players are finally back out on court and begin a brief warm-up. This upcoming eighth game feels big; if Djokovic loses it it will be a tall order to win the set from 3-5, but if he can break, Tsitsipas will have seen a 4-1, 30-15 lead evaporate into even terms at 4-all.
Here we go. Djokovic laces a couple huge forehands but Tsitsipas forces Djokovic into a sub-optimal net approach, and the Serb nets a volley. He wouldn’t have had to come in against many other players. Djokovic goes long with a backhand, so 30-love for Tsitsipas. The Greek goes for an ambitious one-two punch and sends his forehand wide. Tsitsipas then nets a forehand, losing his balance a bit as he hit the shot. An early big point at 30-all. Tsitsipas hits his target on the wide serve, seeing Djokovic’s stretch return go long. And another service winner completes the important hold.
Tsitsipas 5-4 Djokovic
Djokovic bangs a good first serve up the middle, running in to put away the short return with an inside-out forehand. Two service winners make it 40-love quickly. Djokovic comes in off a forehand after his second serve, but the return lacks width and he misses a volley off Tsitsipas’s tough pass. But the Greek misses a forehand and Djokovic holds to 15.
Tsitsipas wins the first set 6-4!
Tsitsipas balloons a forehand long on the opening point of the game. Love-15. After getting some great depth early in the next rally, Djokovic inexplicably nets a forehand; that was a gift. The Serb misses another forehand, this one going long after an even shorter rally. Djokovic looks to have chased down a drop volley from Tsitsipas, but dabs a backhand into the net. 40-15. Djokovic saves the first set point thanks to a forehand error from the Greek, but Tsitsipas takes the second with a service winner into Djokovic’s backhand.
This will be an uphill battle for Djokovic now. As stated in the preview, Djokovic hasn’t been impressive by his standards in the clay season, and he played pretty much that whole first set from behind. Winning two consecutive sets against a confident, in-form Tsitsipas is always difficult, but may prove impossible for Djokovic without a drastic increase in level.
Second set: Tsitsipas 0-1 Djokovic
Djokovic hits a soft second serve and sees Tsitsipas take control of the rally, but he gets out of it with a big crosscourt forehand on the run that forces Tsitsipas to net a slice. A service winner makes it 30-love, then Djokovic finds a drop shot winner. A well-executed shot, but he had some time on forehands earlier in that point and didn’t do much with them. Djokovic holds to love with another big serve.
Ash Barty gave a remarkably composed press conference in which she talked about how her injury was something she’d dealt with before, didn’t want to risk worsening in the tough conditions, and that she and her team think will be fine in a couple weeks.
Tsitsipas 1-1 Djokovic
Tsitsipas is quickly up 30-love after some good serving. Another service winner gives him three game points, then he reaches a Djokovic drop shot after a fun rally and the Serb misses a lob. That was a really speedy hold.
Tsitsipas 2-1 Djokovic
Djokovic lashes an inside-in forehand winner. A lovely shot, but he had to hit the line to get it past Tsitsipas. That shot was obviously helpful for Djokovic, but it’s also a little bit ominous. At 15-all, Djokovic absolutely thrashes two forehands into Tsitsipas’s forehand corner, but the Greek gets an amazingly deep lob up after the second and Djokovic slams an ugly smash from the baseline into the net. Djokovic gets to 30-all with a line-smearing backhand that Tsitsipas mistimes, but he again had to be so precise to win that point. Tsitsipas tries a drop shot-pass combo and misses the latter long. Djokovic is finding it so hard to hit through Tsitsipas even when he has time on forehands, and the conditions are making this even harder. The Serb misses a drop shot for deuce as the rain begins to fall harder. It’s another baseline rally, and it’s again won by Tsitsipas, this time with a stunning crosscourt forehand winner. Djokovic just hasn’t been able to end points that willingly. And he’s broken as he nets a first ball forehand.
That was quite the telling game, even as the worsening conditions made it more difficult for both players. Djokovic is clearly at a disadvantage from the back of the court if Tsitsipas stays consistent; the Greek’s forehand is the biggest groundstroke in the matchup and Djokovic is finding it more difficult to finish points without drop shots or net rushes. If Tsitsipas stays the course and doesn’t bail out of rallies with drop shots, he should win the lion’s share of them.
Alas, we’ll have yet another break as the conditions are deemed too risky to play in. It’s hard to see even a great fighter like Djokovic coming back to win this. There’s a lot of pressure on him to play low-margin offense, which isn’t the bedrock of his game. He’ll have to gamble with some net rushes and really aggressive forehands on top of his drop shots.
Tsitsipas also deserves a lot of credit for how developed his defense has become. It’s a very difficult thing to force Djokovic into lower-margin aggression than he usually plays with. Tsitsipas’s defense combined with his big serve and forehand are a daunting package, and it’s easy to see why he’s had such good results on clay this season.
That’s it for today. This liveblog definitely didn’t go as I expected, but hopefully bits of the commentary on Barty-Gauff and Djokovic-Tsitsipas will be helpful or enjoyable to read. Thanks for following!