After 19-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner lost 6-4, 6-2 to Novak Djokovic in the round of 32 at the Monte-Carlo Masters, I wrote a short piece on how his serve was the main restrictive factor in his game (you can read it here). Sinner had shown some encouraging signs against the world number one. He broke serve twice and served for 5-all in the first set. However, the cold truth that Sinner had lost over half of the points he played on his first serve rendered many of his other stats close to meaningless.
Tennis players frequently say that the one shot they have complete control over is the serve — and they’re right. They are not reacting to the opponent’s spin, depth, or weight of shot. The server has total control of their toss, allowing the serve to be hit on their terms. As such, playing behind the serve is a big advantage, even on clay, which tends to neutralize the pace of serves more than a grass or hard court. Sinner’s game is mature in many ways. But he is yet to make the most of the advantages offered by the serve. After his 7-5, 6-4 loss to Rafael Nadal in Rome today, during which Sinner displayed a number of impressive tactics and shots, I thought I’d return to Sinner’s serve to examine potential improvements or stagnation in his numbers.
First of all: was Sinner’s serve good enough today to not serve as his biggest weakness?
No.
Of the 139 total points in this match, Sinner played 78 of them on his serve. He won 41 of those points, while Nadal won 37, so Sinner came out on top of 52.6% of them. Bluntly put, this is a bad percentage, even on the slow clay of the Foro Italico against a player as adept at returning as Nadal. Sinner made just 54% of his first serves, winning 60% of points behind that delivery, and won 47% of his second serve points. By comparison, Nadal served at an even worse 51%, but managed to win 68% of his first serve points and 59% of his second serve points. And remember, though he has improved it a lot over the years, Nadal is considered to have one of the worse serves among the top ATP players.
Sinner deserves a lot of praise for his performance today. He took his backhand early, compiling several winners off that wing and following the Djokovician blueprint of trying to take away Nadal’s time on the forehand side in crosscourt rallies. He held his own in baseline duels, and all on his own merit — Nadal was in-form, getting good pace and width on his groundstrokes off both wings. But the serve is an important enough weapon that Sinner just couldn’t reap all the potential benefits from his outstanding work from the back of the court. He broke Nadal’s serve three times, but consolidated the effort just once (early in the second set).
Sinner was clutch on many break points against Nadal, saving ten of the 15 he faced, but 15 break points is a massive number to face in two sets. Sinner had eleven service games in the match, so this averages out to more than one per game. Sinner’s pulled off some heroics under pressure — he staved off three set points at 4-5 in the first set and three match points at 4-5 in the second, before Nadal eventually sealed victory with a forehand winner down the line. Such nervelessness in difficult positions is an important quality of a great tennis player, but Sinner’s inability to grant himself many free points with his serve meant that the pressure was unrelenting. Indeed, Sinner lost his serve in his next service game in the first set after the brilliant hold for 5-all. And against elite returners like Djokovic and Nadal, despite Sinner’s mature, deep hitting from the baseline, the long rallies don’t always matter if the serve is failing to alleviate some of the pressure.
Possible solutions
Given that many of Sinner’s losses have seen him win an underwhelming number of points behind his first serve, he might want to consider going for more behind that delivery. The number of first serves he makes may well suffer as a result, but the trade-off could be worth it if more aggressive first serves yield extra free points.
Sinner could also consider hitting more risky second serves. Double faults don’t seem to be an issue for the Italian — in each of his last eight matches, he has hit two or fewer. The last time he hit as many as three double faults in a match was against Djokovic in Monte-Carlo, which is hardly an issue given that Djokovic is the greatest returner on the ATP, and puts pressure on servers like no other. As such, another positive trade-off for Sinner could be going for beefier second serves, risking a couple extra doubles in favor of starting points in a better position.
The 19-year-old’s potential beyond the high level he has already achieved is evident. Meeting Nadal on close to even terms on slow clay is an enormous feat — many players older than Sinner by a decade have never achieved this. But Sinner’s serve remains a clear weakness, and one that will be pounced on by great returners like Djokovic and Nadal. The young Italian forced the issue from the baseline today spectacularly well, even in the face of his opponent’s spitting, spin-soaked forehands. But he now needs to learn how to force the issue more effectively as he rears back into his service motion.